NHL·Analysis

How to outsmart your friends and win your fantasy hockey league

Hockey is back, hope springs eternal and, oh yeah, this is definitely the year you’re winning your fantasy hockey league. As long as you read this advice column.

When in doubt, keep it simple: take good players on good teams

Edmonton's Connor McDavid is the consensus first overall pick in fantasy hockey drafts this season. (Rich Lam/Getty Images)

Hockey is back and hope springs eternal.

Maybe Connor McDavid can carry the Oilers back to relevance. Perhaps Calgary's Carolina influx propels the Flames back to the playoffs. Dare I say the Leafs could contend for the Stanley Cup? And, oh yeah, this is definitely the year you're winning your fantasy hockey league.

You know all the top sleepers — Tyson Jost is on the Avalanche's top power-play unit. You know all the breakout stars — Brayden Point averaged close to a point per game in the playoffs for the Lightning. You know which goalie to snag late — Antti Raanta had a .930 save percentage in just 47 games with the Coyotes last season.

9 predictions in 90 seconds:

9 NHL predictions in 90 seconds

3 years ago
Duration 1:57
With the start of the 2018-19 NHL season upon us, Rob Pizzo uses his crystal ball to predict everything from the Stanley Cup champs, to the first coach to get fired. 1:57

Slight issue: the other nine owners in your league read all the same articles. Point was drafted earlier than expected and now you're praying Jost falls to you. Or should you jump at Raanta to secure your goaltending?

Well, I'm here to tell you: keep it simple.

Good players on good teams win leagues

Forget about the sleepers you read about. Just take the best player available every time you're on the clock.

Don't overthink it. Cam Atkinson plays on the first line in Columbus, but don't jump at that. For one, his star winger Artemi Panarin has basically requested a trade. For another, Nazem Kadri is available. Yeah, he's a third liner, but have you seen the Leafs' top power-play unit? It's hockey's version of the Golden State Warriors devastating Death Lineup. And Kadri's a huge part of it.

So take Kadri — the better player.

The great thing about the top point producers is that they're also all typically among the leaders in shots, plus/minus and power-play points. Maybe they don't kill penalties, but that short-handed points category is going to be decided randomly every week anyway, so don't sweat it.

That being said, if you're stuck between, say, the Islanders' Mat Barzal and the Bruins' David Pastrnak, take the latter. Last season, Barzal notched five more points than Pastrnak. However, it'll take a massive effort for Barzal to finish with a positive plus/minus on a bad Islanders team. For Pastrnak, playing alongside Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, it should be a breeze.

The same logic naturally applies to goalies. Carey Price may be better than Marc-Andre Fleury, but playing behind the Canadiens is going to make life difficult and wins and shutouts will be tough to come by.

Fleury, meanwhile, may lose on save percentage but he'll make up for it in the other two categories for the Western Conference champions.

A lock and a dark horse

Speaking of goalies, it's always tricky to determine when to draft your first goalie, when to snag your second and whether to bother with a backup.

Most leagues require three goalie starts per week. Usually, that can come from one goalie, which is why prioritizing a top 'tender is never a bad idea. Lock it down with a stalwart like Andrei Vasilevskiy or Pekka Rinne, then take a chance on the starter from a team you think might surprise people.

Raanta is a good choice for the second spot. Buffalo's Carter Hutton could also surprise — just by virtue of the Sabres' division, which features perhaps the three best teams in the East but also likely three of the worst. All those games against Montreal, Ottawa and Detroit should help Hutton bank some wins and shutouts. Moreover, if you're already receiving three starts, you can bench him against the higher-scoring teams.

Hockey is random. You already knew that, but it bears mentioning in terms of stats projections. You can make educated guesses on rising rookies or surging sophomores, but they're still guesses.

That's why taking good players, as simple and obvious as it sounds, is the surest way to ensure you're in the race. Plus, there will be plenty of surprises waiting to be picked on waivers and plenty of disappointments you'll be eager to drop from your draft-day roster.

Congratulations in advance on your 2018-2019 fantasy hockey title.

Comments

To encourage thoughtful and respectful conversations, first and last names will appear with each submission to CBC/Radio-Canada's online communities (except in children and youth-oriented communities). Pseudonyms will no longer be permitted.

By submitting a comment, you accept that CBC has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner CBC chooses. Please note that CBC does not endorse the opinions expressed in comments. Comments on this story are moderated according to our Submission Guidelines. Comments are welcome while open. We reserve the right to close comments at any time.

Become a CBC Member

Join the conversation  Create account

Already have an account?

now