Day 6

Trump's odds of staying in office: The Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter for April 19

Will the public release of Robert Mueller's report into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election move the needle?

Will the public release of Robert Mueller's report move the needle?

Marcy Wheeler, independent national security journalist, placed the chances of U.S. President Donald Trump's impeachment at 40 per cent. (Ben Shannon/CBC)

When Donald Trump generates headlines, Day 6 fires up the Impeach-O-Meter, inviting political experts to estimate the odds his presidency will end in impeachment. These are, of course, subjective and hypothetical scores and the impeachment process is complex and dependent on many factors.

Political watchers have waited almost two years for this week.

On Thursday, U.S. Attorney General William Barr released a redacted version of special counsel Robert Mueller's report on the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.

While the report found no criminal wrongdoing on the part of President Donald Trump, it did not exonerate him. Mueller detailed 10 instances of possible obstruction by people close to Trump.

That's why Day 6 is once again firing up the Impeach-O-Meter.

Every few weeks, we ask a political expert to weigh in on the odds of Trump being impeached, from one — meaning totally safe in the White House — to 100, meaning impeachment is imminent.

When we last checked in, Linda Feldmann, Washington bureau chief for the Christian Science Monitor, placed the Impeach-O-Meter at 6 per cent — a 23 per cent drop from the prior reading.

This week, independent national security journalist Marcy Wheeler offered her take on the president's chances of impeachment.

Here is part of what she told Day 6 in an interview:

The House Judiciary [Committee], Senate Judiciary [Committee] and the Gang of Eight are all going to be able to see a mostly-unredacted version of this report.

They'll be able to see the Stone information, for example. Part of it depends on whether the House Judiciary Committee can get the underlying exhibits.

But, I also think a lot depends on what other things happen in the near future. Investigations into Stone and Manafort [are] both ongoing. There are 14 referrals in the report and some of those likely implicate people very close to the president.

I don't expect that this report, by itself, would sustain an impeachment inquiry, partly because we're already in the presidential election season and Democrats can win running on bread and butter issues.

But, I also think that ... the House Judiciary Committee will make moves towards holding the president accountable, not least in case he wins — then they can launch it in his second term.

So, where does Marcy Wheeler place the odds of a Donald Trump impeachment this week?

"40 per cent."

That marks a 34 per cent increase over our last reading.

We'll continue to track the numbers in the weeks to come, and you can follow along here.


To hear Marcy Wheeler give her Impeach-O-Meter prediction, download our podcast or click the 'Listen' button at the top of this page.

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