Day 6

Trump's odds of staying in office: The Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter for November 9

The Democrats made gains in the House, the Republicans won seats in the Senate and Donald Trump fired Jeff Sessions. Will it move the Impeach-O-Meter?

The Democrats made gains in the House, but does it move the Impeach-O-Meter?

Here's how past Day 6 guests have predicted U.S. President Donald Trump's odds of staying in office on the Impeach-O-Meter. (Ben Shannon and Kevin Kirk/CBC)

When Donald Trump generates headlines, Day 6 fires up the "Impeach-O-Meter," inviting political experts to estimate the odds his presidency will end in impeachment. These are, of course, subjective and hypothetical scores and the impeachment process is complex and dependent on many factors.

With the United States midterm elections swinging the House of Representatives towards the Democrats on Nov. 7, it was a tricky week for President Donald Trump.

The so-called blue wave installed the Democrats as the House majority, adding an extra layer of oversight on the president, although Republicans maintained a majority in the Senate.

But the week's major surprise came a day later, when Trump forced the resignation of attorney general Jeff Sessions and filled the vacancy with Matthew Whitaker, Sessions' former chief of staff, on Nov. 8.

The move put Whitaker, who has been supportive of Trump, in charge of Robert Mueller's probe into potential Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

Those developments added new fuel to speculation that impeachment hearings could be on the horizon — so we're firing up the Impeach-O-Meter with the New Republic's Matt Ford.

Every few weeks, we check in on the odds of U.S. President Donald Trump being impeached, from one, meaning totally safe in the White House, to 100, meaning impeachment is imminent.

When we last checked in, Paul Waldman, opinion writer for the Washington Post put the odds of impeachment at 35 per cent — a 2 per cent increase over the previous prediction.

Here's what Matt Ford had to say:

"There are two big things to take away from this week. One, obviously, is the elections where you have Democrats gaining in the House. That makes impeachment a possibility now when it wasn't before with Republican control.

At the same time, you also have Republicans making gains in the Senate, which puts the ultimate goal of perhaps removing Trump from office further out of reach.

The second big thing is that you have Jeff Sessions' removal, which raises the likelihood that Trump will try to move against Robert Mueller in some way. That in turn makes it more likely that this will result in the constitutional standoff that could end up in Congress on impeachment hearings."

So where does Ford place the probability of a Donald Trump impeachment this week?

"I would say 25 [per cent]."

That marks a decrease of 10 per cent over our last prediction.

We'll continue to track the numbers in the weeks to come and you can follow along here.


To hear Matt Ford give his Impeach-O-Meter prediction, download our podcast or click the 'Listen' button at the top of this page.

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