Day 6

Trump's odds of staying in office: The Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter for June 2

This week, New York City based writer and +972 Magazine founding editor Lisa Goldman delivers the odds of Donald Trump's political survival.
In the Impeach-O-Meter reading for June 2, Lisa Goldman of +972 Magazine says Donald Trump's future is looking pretty secure. (Day 6)

When Donald Trump generates headlines, Day 6 fires up the "Impeach-O-Meter," inviting political experts to estimate the odds his presidency will end in impeachment. These are, of course, subjective and hypothetical scores and the impeachment process is complex and dependent on many factors.

Talk of impeachment has been in the air since Donald Trump was elected.

And while many believe it's still premature, even some Republicans have suggested that the investigation into the Trump White House could end in impeachment — including Representatives Justin Amash and Walter Jones.

As the Trump administration continues to wind its way through the Russia investigation, we're inviting our favourite political commentators to weigh in on the week that was in U.S. politics — and whether the latest headlines have moved the Impeach-O-Meter needle.

For the inaugural Impeach-O-Meter reading on May 19, we turned to Jeet Heer, senior editor with the New Republic. He put Trump's odds of impeachment at 20 per cent. You can read his analysis here.

In the second installment of our series, we spoke to Lisa Goldman, founding editor and contributing writer at +972 Magazine. Here's what she had to say about the likelihood of President Trump's impeachment after the events of this week:

"There have been several new developments this crazy news week. Donald Trump's chief advisor, Jared Kushner, who is also his son-in-law, has been implicated and identified as a person of interest in the Russia investigation. And now we see Nigel Farage also identified as a person of interest for possible involvement in a Russia connection.

We also see that Donald Trump is fresh off his first foreign trip, which was not a catastrophe, and that actually has normalized him somewhat.

The Congress is in the Republicans' hands; the Republican base is still pro-Trump. His base is polling at 82 per cent. There's no motivation for Congress to bring an impeachment case against Donald Trump. As long as he remains popular, he will not be impeached.

So where does Goldman place the probability of a Donald Trump impeachment this week?

"10 per cent."     

That's this week's edition of the Impeach-O-Meter. We'll continue to track the numbers in the weeks to come.


To hear Lisa Goldman give her Impeach-O-Meter prediction, download our podcast or click the 'Listen' button at the top of this page.

now