Day 6

Will Trump be impeached? Our Impeach-O-Meter gives you the odds

After all that's happened in Trumpland this week, an elected representative has called for the President's impeachment. The New Republic's Jeet Heer gives us the inaugural reading from the Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter.
In the inaugural impeach-o-meter, New Republic's Jeet Heer predicts that Donald Trump's future is secure, at least for now. (CBC Day 6)

When Donald Trump generates headlines, Day 6 fires up the "Impeach-O-Meter," inviting political experts to estimate the odds his presidency will end in impeachment. These are, of course, subjective and hypothetical scores and the impeachment process is complex and dependent on many factors.

This week, Democrat Al Green became the first member of Congress to call for the impeachment of Donald Trump from the floor of the House of Representatives.

Talk of impeachment has been in the air since Donald Trump was elected. While many think it's still premature, given recent events, even some Republicans are now saying that the investigation into the Trump White House could end in impeachment — including Representatives Justin Amash and Walter Jones.

So starting this week, we're launching the first ever Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter — our way of tracking the odds that President Donald Trump will be impeached, on a scale of 1 to 100.

In episodes to come, we'll be inviting our favourite political commentators to weigh in on the week that was in U.S. politics, and whether the latest developments are worthy of moving the needle on the possibility of a Trump impeachment.

To kick things off, we turn to Jeet Heer, senior editor with the New Republic. Here's what he has to say about Trump's odds of impeachment this week:

"If we're just going by, 'is President Donald Trump worthy of being impeached?', it's at 100 per cent. But there are things that go against that. There's a Republican Congress; the investigation is still in its early stages; you have to convince people in Congress to go against their own party.

This week, though, there were things that are changing peoples' minds. And a big one is the Comey memos. Trump fired FBI director James Comey. That looks suspicious. And now, it turns out that Comey kept memos of his conversations, and Trump was telling Comey: 'You know, uh, my friend Michael Flynn? Don't investigate him!' And that looks like obstruction of justice.

So impeachment is still in the distance, but we're on the train."


So where does Heer place the probability of a Donald Trump impeachment this week?

"Right now we're at a 20 per cent chance of impeachment."     

That's this week's edition of the Impeach-O-Meter. We'll continue to track the numbers in the weeks to come.

To hear Jeet Heer give his Impeach-O-Meter prediction, download our podcast or click the 'Listen' button at the top of this page.