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NL WEEKEND WATCH

Well of course, we go for weeks and weeks.... and weeks with no rain. Then with one of the busiest weekends of the Summer on tap...(George Street Fest, Festival of Lights) things are suddenly looking some what unsettled for Eastern Newfoundland. The rest of the Island however, isn't looking too shabby!

First Low Moves Through
 
Our cold front (and a new low developing along it) continues to roll through NL today, bringing rain and wind. The first "pulse" of Rain pushed through Southwestern Nfld today and dropped anywhere from 20 mm to 70 mm in some places. That first pulse is now pushing up into Southeastern Labrador. Now we have our new Low bringing more Rain in from the South... into the South Coast and Central tonight and then Eastern Newfoundland on Thursday. Rainfall amounts will be highest along the South Coast, where we're looking at Rainfall amounts in the 20-40 mm range for most. However much like the Port aux Basques region today, localized areas could see 60-70 mm by Thursday evening. A special weather statement was released by the Gander Weather office this afternoon
 
Another 5-10 mm for Western Newfoundland, while the Northern Peninsula and Southeastern Labrador will generally see 10-20 mm with as much as 30-40 mm in localized areas by Friday morning. 10-20 mm appears to be the range for Central and Eastern Newfoundland.

Here's how things will play out over the next 36 hours.


 
Friday and Beyond

Timing is EVERYTHING of course, but there's a little more consensus with the forecast models today. Here's how things are looking right now, as we head towards the Weekend.
 
-Thursday night is still looking damp across the Island (not great news for the kick off of George St. Fest) however it appears things will slowly clear as we work into Friday.
 
-The Northeast Coast will see lingering showers along the Northeast Coast on Friday morning, however clearing into the afternoon. Overall, Friday does look like a nice day across most of NL... with Sun and Cloud in the mix for many. Temps flirting with 20° in Labrador and well into the 20°'s for most of Nfld!
 
-Our next system will be rolling in from the Southwest through the day on Friday and appears set to move over Southeastern Newfoundland on Friday evening and into Saturday. There's fairly good consensus on the timing of the system, however intensity... not so much!!
 
-The Canadian (below) is bringing a much juicier shot, with a stronger low moving in. This is as of about 9 pm.

GEMFriEve.png
-The GFS American model (below) is much weaker with the system... but brings it in a little sooner, with a better chance of evening showers on Friday. This is the same time period. This is going to be a wait and see. 

GFSFriEve.png
SATURDAY
 
The American model shows a quicker clear out for Eastern Newfoundland on Saturday morning, with even some afternoon Sunshine possible. However the juicer Canadian model idea (below), is also slower and shows more morning showers, with 'some' improvements through the afternoon and into Saturday evening... however the chance of a few light showers remains. This snap is as of 9pm Saturday. 

GEMSatEve.png
The flow around the back side of the departing system will be from the North and it's looking like a cooler Saturday right along the Northeast Coast and into Metro. Temps could struggle into the high teens. Stay tuned.
 
The rest of Nfld isn't looking pretty nice on Saturday, looks like a chance of showers from Port aux Basques to the Bay of Ex and Central in the very early going... but clearing into the afternoon as the system departs to the East. 

The West Coast looks nice and Labrador is looking at a dandy Saturday as well.
 
SUNDAY
 
The latter half of the weekend is looking a bit better for Eastern Newfoundland, however with Winds likely to continue in from the North or even Northeast. Having said that, we should see a little Sunshine. An approaching trough off the South, should stay out until Sunday night... and may actually stay out all together. It's still early. Stay tuned on that.

GEMSunEve.png
The rest of the Province is looking good on Sunday as well. Watching the South Coast for a few possible showers from that approaching trough, but everyone else is looking at taste of Sun and Cloud.
 
Again, it's still only Wednesday. Plenty can change, especially here in NL! Stay tuned to the Live Blog for the latest. I'll keep you posted.
 
Ryan

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