MARIA UPDATE- TUESDAY
September 13, 2011 12:36 PM
-Maria continues to fight against strong upper level winds, which are
keeping the Storm from strengthening. However it appears late day Wednesday,
upper level winds will ease off and Maria could gain some strength as it begins
to work Northward. It appears late day Wednesday to mid day Thursday, will
be the key time frame where Maria has a chance to intensify.
-There are still some forecast models that seem determined that Maria will
become a Category One Hurricane briefly on Thursday. No doubt this is a
possibility. However I have to say, I'm not convinced, especially given the
small window this storm will have to intensify.
-Either way, by early Thursday, Maria is likely to pass by Bermuda and
begin moving quickly Northward towards Atlantic Canada. Whether she works in as a Tropical Storm, or Post Tropical Storm, Maria will be bringing a lot of moisture into our region on Thursday
night and into Friday.
-As I mentioned on Here & Now last night, one of the biggest challenges
with this forecast will be due to the fact that we have ANOTHER Low moving into
Atlantic Canada, from the West on Thursday and into Friday. There are all kinds of ideas from
different forecast models, on how these two systems will eventually merge
together. Of course how they merge, will be critical to both the Rainfall amounts
we see as well as Winds.
-The NOGAPS model below, is further West with the track of Maria. As it
result it merges the two systems together very early in the game and keeps the
heaviest Rains over Western Newfoundland and Eastern Labrador.
-The latest Canadian model below, is merging the systems
together fairly early as well. Rainfall projections with this solution are much
more widespread across Eastern Labrador and the entire Island.
-The GFS American model below, is later to merge the systems, keeping Maria
and her moisture, primarily over Eastern Newfoundland, it merges the systems
together over the Labrador Sea... and ends up dropping decent Rains along the Coast of
Labrador.
-All different ideas. All valid ideas. It's simply too early to say for
sure.
-The key things too happen over the next 24-36 hours: Maria should begin to
work Northward and into a region where she could strengthen. Our Low tracking in
from the West, will develop over the Canadian Prairies today and into tonight.
The timing of that system is critical as well.
-Either way, Central and Eastern Labrador and the entire Island should prepare for Rain coming Thursday and Friday... and powerful Winds coming Friday and continuing into Saturday.
ALSO: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has started to release statements on Maria. You can find them here: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html
Stay tuned.
Ryan
