313 million users can't save Twitter from itself
'Many believe Twitter, in its current form, has peaked,' analyst says
Twitter is poised to become a very different website.
After 10 years, the social media site remains an enigma to business markets and a bit of a mystery to users as well. Experts agree Twitter's moribund growth and persistent identity crisis mean its future lies in being acquired — and that means change.
Rumours of a possible sale to a tech megacorp nudged Twitter's (TWTR) share price up in recent weeks, but that came to an end Thursday as the stock plummeted on news neither Google nor Disney are interested, and that Apple isn't likely to make a bid.
Whoever takes it over has a real problem on their hands, says Markus Giesler, associate professor of marketing at Toronto's Schulich School of Business.
"The big elephant in the room ... is that Twitter itself doesn't really understand its business yet," he said.
"That clearly shows up in how investors have looked at it. [CEO] Jack Dorsey has been struggling to define the company. And investors have, in a way, punished Twitter for its lack of corporate identity."
Users 'speaking to themselves'
Worse, its users aren't even sure.
"From a consumer standpoint, it's a little like a promise that remains unfulfilled," said Giesler, who also heads up Schulich's Big Design Lab, researching customer experience design. "[Users are] trying to inject some meaning ... into an experience that remains rather undefined at this point."
Social media is about having a conversation, "and right now Twitter isn't really enabling this in the sense that most of the Twitter users out there are speaking to themselves," Giesler said. Only a tiny percentage of people on Twitter get Kardashian-level exposure; most are sending tweets out to a small number of followers who may or may not be online at the time.
The company's attempt to woo buyers is perhaps a way to get the marketplace to define it, essentially: you tell us what we are.
Disney might say Twitter is about video streaming, and it could use the platform in conjunction with its sports and entertainment properties (which include ESPN, Pixar and Lucasfilm). Or Google could say Twitter is about data, and combine the site with its existing data resources.
Either of those acquisitions would have made sense to Giesler.
The one possibility he doesn't understand involves cloud-computing company Salesforce — the only major player still in the game.
But technology analyst Mira V. Perry sees the logic.
"Salesforce lost out on the gold mine of business data with the failed LinkedIn acquisition attempt," the analyst with market intelligence firm IDC Canada said. "Twitter isn't an equal alternative for business data by any means, but with continued reliable usage by Salesforce's primary market of interest — business professionals — it can enhance their product portfolio."
Salesforce's "chief digital evangelist" Vala Afshar hinted the company might be interested in buying Twitter in a Sept. 23 tweet that began: "Why @twitter?"
Why <a href="https://twitter.com/twitter">@twitter</a>?<br><br>1 personal learning network<br>2 the best realtime, context rich news<br>3 democratize intelligence<br>4 great place to promote others—@ValaAfshar
But both Afshar and Twitter CEO Dorsey have been silent since Thursday's report.
Twitterverse not expanding
Despite all that, Giesler says the platform "has to change."
"Further evidence that people aren't really excited about what Twitter does and is," Giesler said.
Twitter has also been dogged by well-documented user complaints about harassment and abuse on the site as it tries to balance free speech with user security and privacy.
"Twitter's culture is perhaps its worst enemy," said Ramona Pringle, an assistant professor in new media at Ryerson University and CBC columnist. "We have seen so many high-profile people leave the platform citing toxicity, hostility and flat-out hate, and there has been ongoing criticism that the company hasn't taken enough steps to prevent that kind of harassment."
Analyst Perry says "many believe Twitter, in its current form, has peaked."
So what form will it take?
That's unclear, though the site has recently had success with live streaming the U.S. presidential debate and some NFL games.
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"That model of live streaming content with an additional layer of fan engagement — especially for communal, collective live events — is really their strong suit, and that's where their value lies," Pringle said.
"They're the go-to platform for live public commentary and discussion — that is a real value for companies struggling with audience engagement and distribution," she said. "Right now, they are able to service a whole collection of different outlets, from news to sports and beyond, and the question is, is there one specific company for whom what they provide brings enough value?"