Science

40% chance Earth will be hotter than Paris goal within 5 years, WMO forecasts

There's a 40 per cent chance that the world will get so hot in the next five years that it will temporarily push past the temperature limit the Paris climate agreement is trying to prevent, meteorologists said.

90% chance of new 'hottest year' record by 2025

The sun sets behind a smokestack in the distance in Kansas City, Mo. According to a World Meteorological Organization forecast for the next five years, it'll likely be so hot that there's a 40 per cent chance in the next few years that the globe will push past the temperature limit set by the Paris climate agreement. (Charlie Riedel/The Associated Press)

There's a 40 per cent chance that the world will get so hot in the next five years that it will temporarily push past the temperature limit the Paris climate agreement is trying to prevent, meteorologists said.

A new World Meteorological Organization forecast for the next several years also predicts a 90 per cent chance that the world will set yet another record for the hottest year by the end of 2025 and that the Atlantic will continue to brew more potentially dangerous hurricanes than it used to.

For this year, the meteorologists say large parts of land in the Northern Hemisphere will be 0.8 C warmer than recent decades and that the U.S. Southwest's drought will continue.

The 2015 Paris climate accord set a goal of keeping warming to a few tenths of a degree warmer from now. The report said there is a 40 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will be 1.5 C (2.7 F) higher than pre-industrial times — the more stringent of two Paris goals. The world is already 1.2 C (2.2 F) warmer than pre-industrial times.

Last year, the same group forecasted a 20 per cent chance of it happening.

The doubling of the odds is due to improvements in technology that show it has "actually warmed more than we thought already," especially over the lightly-monitored polar regions, said Leon Hermanson, a climate scientist at the United Kingdom's Met Center who helped on the forecast.

"It's a warning that we need to take strong action," Hermanson said.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn't part of the report, said he is "almost certain" the world will exceed that Paris warming threshold at least once in the next few years. But he said one or two years above 1.5 C (2.7 F) isn't as worrisome as when the overall trend of temperatures stays above that level.

Mann said that won't happen probably for decades and could still be prevented.

Add some “good” to your morning and evening.

A variety of newsletters you'll love, delivered straight to you.

Sign up now

Comments

To encourage thoughtful and respectful conversations, first and last names will appear with each submission to CBC/Radio-Canada's online communities (except in children and youth-oriented communities). Pseudonyms will no longer be permitted.

By submitting a comment, you accept that CBC has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner CBC chooses. Please note that CBC does not endorse the opinions expressed in comments. Comments on this story are moderated according to our Submission Guidelines. Comments are welcome while open. We reserve the right to close comments at any time.

Become a CBC Member

Join the conversation  Create account

Already have an account?

now