European heat wave isn't a surprise — it's a warning of what inaction could mean for our future
From extreme heat to fires to droughts, Europe faces unprecedented events
Europe is living in a disaster movie.
Unprecedented temperatures — 47 C in Portugal over the weekend; nearly 40 C in parts of Britain on Monday — have killed 1,000 people.
Roads in France are under threat of literally melting. Rail lines are in danger of buckling. Runways at airports are forced to shut down.
Wildfires are spreading across several countries as thousands evacuate their homes.
"In some southwestern areas, it will be a heat apocalypse," meteorologist Francois Gourand told the news agency AFP about the heat wave in France.
At one time, this may have sounded like hyperbole, but the fact is every year countries around the world break long-standing temperature records — as was seen in B.C. last year — and then thousands die.
All of this should come as a shock to no one. Climatologists have been sounding the alarm for decades, warning of the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts.
When asked if this type of heat wave comes as a surprise to him, climatologist Michael Mann, said in an email, "Sadly, not. We have seen a recurring pattern of a very wavy jet stream this summer. That pattern is associated with the extreme events we're seeing right now in the U.S. and Europe."
When the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released in 1990, it addressed the potential increase in heat waves, stating, "Some scientists believe that in a warmer climate the earth can be expected to experience more variable weather than now, with a likelihood of more floods and drought, more intense hurricanes or typhoons, and more heat waves."
Every climate scientist this week. <a href="https://t.co/Yhak177Rjn">pic.twitter.com/Yhak177Rjn</a>—@PeterGleick
There have been four more assessment reports since then, with the language growing stronger and stronger about how the world needs to limit warming to 1.5 C above the pre-industrial average or it will face dire consequences.
In its Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 C, the IPCC noted that "Limiting global warming to 1.5 C instead of 2 C could result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves and about 65 million fewer people being exposed to exceptional heat waves, assuming constant vulnerability."
Underestimating heat waves of the future
But those reports aren't just talking about the future — at roughly 1.2 C of warming right now, we're already seeing the effects of climate change, particularly in the summer months.
The worst part, Mann said, is that climatologists may have underestimated the long-term predictions of heat waves.
"The mechanisms by which climate change is impacting this sort of jet stream behaviour isn't well captured in current state-of-the-art climate models, which means that model simulations might not be capturing the full impact of climate change on these extreme heat events," he said. "It's a reminder that uncertainty isn't our friend. If anything, the models may be underestimating the catastrophic consequences of an 1.5 C or 2 C warming."
Other climate scientists are similarly concerned.
Looking at Britain, Spain and Portugal, where temperatures either soared near 40 C or above that, it's a stark reminder that without serious action we will face temperatures we've never seen before. In recent years, the continent has had several heat waves and will face more with a warming planet.
Here are the top temperatures recorded across the UK on Monday 👇<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/heatwave2022?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#heatwave2022</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/heatwave?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#heatwave</a> <a href="https://t.co/irazHtAI15">pic.twitter.com/irazHtAI15</a>—@metoffice
But there is still time, scientists say, to avoid tens of thousands of deaths and to reduce the suffering of millions.
"There is no such thing as too late when it comes to climate change. Every tenth of a degree matters," Caroline Brouillette, the national policy manager for the Climate Action Network Canada told CBC News.
"There's a difference between something being extremely hard and something being impossible. Limiting warming to 1.5 C is definitely a massive social and economic undertaking that we have to do. But that doesn't mean it's impossible."
At a climate meeting in Berlin, UN Secretary General António Guterres — who has always been blunt with his climate messaging — told representatives of 40 countries, "Excellencies, this has to be the decade of decisive climate action. That means trust, multilateralism and collaboration.
"We have a choice. Collective action or collective suicide. It is in our hands."
In December 2021, Netflix released the hit disaster movie, Don't Look Up, a satirical — but seemingly all-too-real — look at how leaders ignore the threat of an incoming comet. It was a thinly veiled look at our response to climate change. As the comet smashes into Earth, destroying it, Leonardo DiCaprio delivers a gut-punch of a last line: "We really did have everything, didn't we? I mean, when you think about it."
We don't want a future generation saying the same.
With files from Jaela Bernstien