Politics·Feature

Vote Compass: Canadians predict who they think will win their riding

Each election candidate has his or her own idea about how their respective contests will fare on Oct. 19, but who do you think will take your riding? We have a map for that.

Who do you think will win your riding? We have a map for that

With the federal election mere days away, parties are campaigning furiously to galvanize their bases and try to sway undecided voters.

Candidates have their own idea of how well their respective campaigns are going and who is going to win these local contests. But what about the people living in those ridings?

CBC/Radio-Canada has produced an interactive feature that tries to gauge local sentiment about which party voters think will win their respective ridings on Oct. 19.

The interactive below is not a poll, and it does not display voter intentions. Rather, it uses data gathered through CBC's Vote Compass to state which party people across the country believe is most likely to win the riding they live in.

The results are based on 68,481 responses gathered through Vote Compass between Oct. 9 and Oct. 12.

The map below contains all of the ridings in Canada. The colours correspond to the party that most respondents believe will receive the most votes.

In addition to making a prediction, Vote Compass respondents were asked to express how confident they were in that prediction. That data is reflected by clicking on a riding on the map.

Click on the map or use the zoom tool to find your riding.



Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in Canada exclusively by CBC News. The findings above are based on 68,481 responses gathered through Vote Compass between Oct. 9 and Oct. 12.

The results are derived from the responses to the question: In your opinion, how likely is it that the people in your riding will elect (party)? Users are asked this question for each party (with the caveat that only users in Quebec receive the Bloc Québécois) and provided with a response scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means not at all likely and 10 means very likely.

The results are not an indication of who the constituents of a riding actually intend to actually vote for, but who they think will win the election in their riding. They are not a forecast of the election results.

Unlike opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not randomly selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data are a non-random sample from the population and have been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample. Vote Compass data have been weighted by geography, gender, age, educational attainment, occupation, religion, religiosity and civic engagement to ensure the sample's composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to census data and other population estimates.

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