TOPIC: ERIC GRENIER

Analysis

Doug Ford's PCs enter final year before election in the lead, but vulnerable

With one year to go before the 2022 provincial election, the Ontario PCs still hold a lead in the polls — but that could disappear if the divided opposition vote gets behind one party.
Analysis

The Liberals' path to a possible majority government runs through Quebec

The Liberals are taking on the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, hoping to wrest enough seats from the party in the next election to make their path to a majority government easier.
Analysis

Erin O'Toole isn't breaking through — and Jason Kenney and Doug Ford aren't helping

Polls suggest the federal Conservatives haven't been able to close the gap on the Liberals — and the premiers of Ontario and Alberta aren't making it any easier on them.
Analysis

The pandemic election bill is a political football now — and may be unnecessary

C-19, a bill to make holding elections safer during a pandemic, has become a political football — but some of its provisions might do more harm than good.
Analysis

How a vacancy in a safe Conservative seat could mean headaches for Erin O'Toole

Following the resignation of former Conservative MP Diane Finley, a byelection will take place in the Ontario riding of Haldimand–Norfolk — if there is no general election in the fall.
Analysis

Independence movements in Scotland, Quebec heading in different directions

As Scots contemplate becoming an independent country again — just seven years after deciding against it in a 2014 referendum — Quebec seems further away from independence than it has been for decades.
Analysis

Conservatives break fundraising records but struggle to break through with voters

Fundraising records are there to be broken, at least if you're the Conservative Party. But why hasn't voter support for the Conservatives grown at the same pace as their bank account?
Analysis

A Harper dynasty and the end of the Liberals? How the 2011 election didn't change everything

At the time, the 2011 federal election seemed like it was ushering in a new era in Canadian politics. Ten years later, it looks more like the exception than a new rule.
Analysis

Doug Ford's popularity plummets as pandemic takes its toll

The last week has been a bad one for the Ontario premier. Polls suggest his recent handling of the pandemic has sapped his support.
Analysis

To win the next election, the Conservatives need to be taken seriously on climate change

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole's new climate change plan amounts to a tricky balancing act. Will it attract enough swing voters to make up for any potential losses from a voter base inclined to oppose carbon taxes?
Analysis

Yukon's election shows why every vote matters — especially for Justin Trudeau's Liberals

The Yukon territorial election ended in a tie, but the performance of the conservative Yukon Party could mean the federal Liberals end up struggling to hold the territory's federal seat.
Analysis

Liberals, NDP could use a bump in the polls — at each other's expense

Polls suggest the federal Liberals are knocking on the door of a majority government. A few more votes from New Democrat supporters could open it.
Analysis

COVID-19 and N.L.'s election results probably killed the idea of a spring federal election

The provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador showed that a governing party can take a hit for calling a vote in the middle of a pandemic — particularly when case numbers rise.
Analysis

What a Legault-Trudeau detente might mean for the Liberals in Quebec

A better relationship between the prime minister and Quebec premier could be good news for the Liberals and bad news for their opponents.
Analysis

Change in leadership rules shows Conservative Party's old fault lines haven't gone away

Delegates to the Conservative policy convention last week voted to change how the party chooses its leaders, likely reducing the influence that Quebec and Atlantic Canada will wield in future contests.
Analysis

If he's ever going to win, Erin O'Toole needs to start broadening the Conservative tent

The Conservatives can count on a rock-solid base of about 30 per cent of the electorate, but they'll need more than that to win an election.
Analysis

Apathy might be what's keeping Canadians from ditching the monarchy

Polls suggest that support for the monarchy is a minority view in Canada — but people who really don't care who serves as this country's head of state might be the biggest bulwark against constitutional change.
Analysis

Blocked by the Bloc: how Quebec voters could decide the timing of the next election

The Liberals' lead in the polls over the Conservatives might make them bullish on their chances to win an election, but the Bloc could put a damper on their hopes for a majority government.
Analysis

Unlike past Conservative leaders, Erin O'Toole has enjoyed no bump in the polls

After their first 200 days in the job, past Conservative leaders saw their party's support in the polls increase. Under Erin O'Toole, the Conservatives have just as much support today as they did when he took over.
Analysis

Singh's NDP could gain a little — and lose a lot — in a spring election

The NDP has seen its support increase in national polls for several reasons. Some are promising for the party, but others suggest the gains are not quite what they seem.
Analysis

Trudeau's poll numbers took a hit over vaccine delays — but the Liberals escaped the worst

The prime minister's approval ratings have slipped but the Liberals still lead in the polls. And now more vaccines are on their way.
Analysis

Justin Trudeau is now the old man of the federation — and he didn't have to wait very long

Few prime ministers have held seniority around the first ministers' table — and none of them were younger than Justin Trudeau is now when they achieved it.
Analysis

Why Conservatives can't turn their backs on their western base

The Conservatives need to win over voters in central and Eastern Canada to win the next election — but that doesn't mean they can afford to ignore their base in the West.
Analysis

What's a safe lead in the polls? History suggests Trudeau's lead isn't enough

The Liberals lead in the polls, but not by a wide enough margin that they can be reasonably confident of winning an election if they call one early.

Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc end 2020 with record-breaking fundraising quarter

A global pandemic did not prevent Canadians from opening their wallets and donating to political parties.

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