The Pollcast: The latest numbers on the SNC-Lavalin affair

On the latest episode of The Pollcast, Abacus Data's David Coletto breaks down the latest poll numbers on the SNC-Lavalin affair.

Abacus Data CEO David Coletto on federal polling numbers

Polls suggest that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals have fallen behind the Conservatives in national voting intentions in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair. (Fred Chartrand/Canadian Press)

With nearly every passing day, there's a new development in the SNC-Lavalin affair. Tracking public opinion in such a fluid situation is a lot like trying to hit a moving target.

But as the controversy unfolds, how are Canadians reacting on a week-to-week, and even day-to-day basis?

Abacus Data has been surveying Canadians consistently over the last few weeks, providing before-and-after snapshots of public opinion at key moments of the saga: the initial breaking of the story in the Globe and Mail, former attorney-general Jody Wilson-Raybould's resignation from cabinet, the resignation of the prime minister's principal secretary Gerald Butts, the testimony of Wilson-Raybould and even this week's departure of Jane Philpott from the Liberal cabinet.

The polling numbers show that the Liberals' support is in decline — and that Justin Trudeau himself may be taking the biggest hit. But the numbers also suggest that the party may have hit a floor.

In the wake of Wilson-Raybould's testimony on Feb. 27, the Conservatives opened a seven-point lead over the Liberals in Abacus's polling. But since then, that lead has dwindled to two points.

To go through the polling numbers, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto joins host and CBC polls analyst Éric Grenier on this week's episode of the Pollcast podcast.

Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes of the show.


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