The Pollcast: Battleground Quebec

On the latest episode of The Pollcast, strategists Mylène Dupéré, Carl Vallée and Dominic Vallières break down the electoral prospects of the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Québécois in Quebec.

Mylène Dupéré, Carl Vallée and Dominic Vallières break down the electoral map in Quebec

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals won 40 seats in Quebec in the 2015 federal election. They're hoping to win more in October's vote. (Graham Hugh/Canadian Press)

Voters in Quebec have been fickle over the last three election campaigns, giving a majority of the province's seats to the Bloc Québécois in 2008, the New Democrats in 2011 and the Liberals in 2015.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is hoping to break that trend by winning the province again in October. His re-election hopes depend on it.

The Liberals have lost their national lead in the polls to the Conservatives over the last few months, trailing at length in Western Canada and running neck-and-neck with Andrew Scheer's party in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. But the Liberals still hold a wide — if diminished — lead in Quebec.

According to the CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals have 35.3 per cent support in Quebec. The Conservatives are in second place with 20.4 per cent, followed by the Bloc at 17.9 per cent, the NDP at 11.1 per cent and the Greens at 9.3 per cent.

With these numbers, the Liberals are in a good position to gain seats in Quebec. So are the Conservatives and Bloc, largely at the expense of the faltering New Democrats.

On the latest episode of The Pollcast podcast, CBC polls analyst and host Éric Grenier speaks with former strategists of each of the three leading parties in Quebec to break down their prospects ahead of this fall's election.

Mylène Dupéré worked under four different Liberal leaders. Carl Vallée was the former press secretary and Quebec advisor to Stephen Harper.  Dominic Vallières was a speechwriter for former premier and Parti Québécois leader Pauline Marois.

Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes of the show.


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