The Pollcast: Fishing for votes on the West Coast

On the latest episode of The Pollcast, pollster Mario Canseco joins host Éric Grenier to break down the federal election landscape in British Columbia.

What the federal landscape in B.C. looks like ahead of October's election

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals won the most seats and votes in B.C. in the 2015 federal election, but the polls now show his party trailing the Conservatives in the province. (Darryl Dyck / Canadian Press)

The vote-counting starts late in British Columbia — sometimes too late to make a difference. By the time the first winners are declared in B.C. on election night, the outcome often has been determined already by the results in the rest of Canada.

But in October's vote, there might be good reasons for Canadians to stay up late to see what British Columbians do.

With less than three months to go before the election, B.C. is promising to be a hotly contested electoral battleground. The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker shows a tight race in the province between the Conservatives, who lead with 32 per cent, and the Liberals, who trail with 27 per cent.

The Greens and New Democrats are further back at 19 per cent apiece.

That represents a lot of movement since 2015. The Liberals won the province in that election with 35 per cent of the vote and 17 seats. The Conservatives took 30 per cent of the vote and 10 seats, while the New Democrats secured 26 per cent of ballots cast and 14 seats. The Greens took eight per cent of the vote and saw their leader, Elizabeth May, elected in her Vancouver Island riding.

With the Liberal Party and NDP both down in the polls, the Conservatives up a little and the Greens up big, many seats could change hands on election night — perhaps enough to decide what the next government will look like.

To provide an early look at how the contest is shaping up, on the latest episode of The Pollcast podcast host and CBC polls analyst Éric Grenier is joined by B.C. pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co.

Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes of the show.

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