The Pollcast: Will the Liberals be stampeded out of Alberta?

On the latest episode of The Pollcast, Dave Cournoyer joins host Éric Grenier to break down the federal election landscape in Alberta.

What the federal landscape in Alberta looks like ahead of October's election

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says his Liberal Party will win more seats in Alberta in October's federal election, but polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by a wide margin in the province. (Jeff McIntosh / Canadian Press)

In Calgary this past weekend, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a crowd of supporters that his party would "not just bring back our [Alberta] MPs, but bring back more MPs to Ottawa" after October's federal election.

That would be a surprise — the Liberals are polling lower in Alberta than anywhere else in the country. How likely is it that Trudeau can make good on this promise?

According to the CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, the Conservatives lead in Alberta with 59.8 per cent support. Trailing at length are the Liberals with 19.8 per cent, followed by the New Democrats at 11.8 per cent and the Greens at 4.5 per cent.

Those numbers put all four of the seats the Liberals won in 2015 at risk of flipping over to the Conservatives. The one seat won by the New Democrats is also vulnerable, as three-term MP Linda Duncan is not running for re-election in her Edmonton Strathcona riding.

So while most of the Alberta electoral map is already blue, the odds are good that it will only get bluer. To break it all down on this week's episode of The Pollcast podcast, host and CBC polls analyst Éric Grenier is joined by Dave Cournoyer, publisher of the Alberta politics website Daveberta.ca and host of the Daveberta Podcast.

Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes of the show.

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