The Pollcast: Is Jagmeet Singh the one to beat?

New fundraising numbers show Jagmeet Singh is running laps around his three rivals for the NDP leadership. Host Éric Grenier is joined by NDP insiders Sally Housser and Robin MacLachlan to discuss what the numbers mean.

Host Éric Grenier is joined by NDP insiders Sally Housser and Robin MacLachlan

New Democratic Party federal leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh raised $357,000 in first seven weeks of his candidacy. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

The CBC Pollcast, hosted by CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, explores the world of electoral politics, political polls and the trends they reveal.

Ontario MPP Jagmeet Singh is raising a lot of money, lapping his three rivals for the federal NDP leadership according to fundraising data released earlier this week by Elections Canada.

It suggests Singh might be the one to beat as the race unfolds. But is he really a shoo-in to win the party's leadership?

In the second quarter of 2017, Singh raised $357,000 in his bid to be the next leader of the NDP. That put him well ahead of his rivals, who together raised less money than Singh. Ontario MP Charlie Angus took in $124,000, Manitoba MP Niki Ashton $70,000 and Quebec MP Guy Caron $47,000.

And Singh did it in half the time of his competitors. Looking at the dollar figure alone, Singh could be poised to win the leadership on the first ballot, the results of which will be announced on Oct. 1.

But Singh's advantage is not so wide when only individual contributors — rather than the amount they have contributed — are taken into account. 

Singh's donors have deeper pockets, giving more per donation than his opponents' contributors. Though he still had more individual contributors than any other candidate in the second quarter, it was much less than half of the total number of donors — and since the beginning of the leadership campaign, Angus has amassed more individual donors.

To break down the meaning of the latest fundraising figures, Pollcast host Éric Grenier is joined again by NDP insiders Sally Housser of Navigator and Robin MacLachlan of Summa Strategies.

Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes.

Past episodes with Robin MacLachlan and Sally Housser on the NDP leadership race:

Follow Éric Grenier, Sally Housser and Robin MacLachlan on Twitter.


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