Presidential Poll Tracker state-by-state projections

A full state-by-state breakdown of the projections for the U.S. presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Full state-by-state breakdown for the U.S. presidential election

CBC Presidential Poll Tracker's state-by-state projections as of Nov. 8, 2016 (including polling in the field to Nov. 7, 2016).

The CBC's Presidential Poll Tracker follows the ups and downs of the U.S. presidential election campaign between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Below are the current state-by-state projections for all 50 states, as well as Washington, D.C. These were last updated on Nov. 8, 2016.

States with a projected margin of 3.7 points or less are considered Lean states by the Poll Tracker. Those with a projected margin of between 3.7 and 8.2 points are considered Likely states for either the Democrats or Republicans. States with a margin of more than 8.2 points are considered Safe.

The projection for Others is a combination of support for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, Green candidate Jill Stein, and other third party and independent candidates running for the presidency.

CBC Presidential Poll Tracker state-by-state projections.

The Presidential Poll Tracker includes all published mainstream surveys, a list of which can be found here. The polls are weighted by sample size and date, as well as the reliability of each pollster as rated by FiveThirtyEight.com. The electoral college is projected by applying the same weighting standards to state-level polls and combining this with a uniform swing model, based on how the current national polling average compares with the 2012 presidential election. Surveys included in the model vary in terms of sample size and methodology and have not been individually verified by the CBC. A full methodological explanation can be found here.


Éric Grenier

Politics and polls

Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.