Canada not immune from faltering global growth, says IMF chief economist

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas says Canada has recovered well from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic but still faces the prospect of slow growth and economic uncertainty.

Canadians facing high food prices, prospect of job losses

A man talks
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, speaks at a news conference on the IMF's world economic outlook during the 2022 annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Washington on Oct. 11. (Patrick Semansky/AP)

The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund says Canada is facing many of the same challenges — high inflation, lacklustre growth and anxious financial markets — that are dragging down the global economic outlook.

"The Canadian economy has been doing well in the rebound, but it's buffeted by the same winds that are affecting the global economy," said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in an interview on Rosemary Barton Live airing Sunday.

The IMF says the world is experiencing "a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown" with growth expected to slow to 2.7 per cent next year, down from 3.2 per cent this year. The UN financial agency projects the Canadian economy will grow by just 1.5 per cent.

"There is a slowdown in the US that is coming. Commodity prices, energy prices are coming down. There are all the uncertainties, financial tightening and financial markets are very nervous. All of these factors are going to weigh down on on the Canadian economy next year," Gourinchas told CBC chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton.

WATCH | IMF chief economist discusses economic outlook:

Canada's economy will experience a 'slowdown', IMF chief economist warns

7 months ago
Duration 8:49
Rosemary Barton Live speaks with IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas about Canada's economy and the global economic forecast. Gourinchas says inflation rates may come down but will still be high, and that global growth will slow down. 'Elevated inflation, low growth is not a combination that feels good,' he says.

The IMF's projections are just the latest in a series of gloomy assessments from economic experts recently. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney told the Senate finance committee Thursday Canada would likely fall into a recession next year — though he noted this country should fare comparatively well.

Deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland has also warned of dark clouds on the horizon.

"There are still some difficult days ahead for Canada's economy. To say otherwise would be misleading," she said Wednesday.

And on Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also nodded to the prospect of an uncertain economic future. He emphasized the passage of several targeted measures — such as the GST tax credit boost passed Tuesday — to help blunt the effect of inflation on some Canadians. But he acknowledged many were facing a challenge.

"That's why remaining fiscally responsible and measured in our response is essential, because we have to prepare for whatever might come in the coming weeks and months," he said.

Food prices outpace headline inflation

Central banks around the world have responded to rising inflation by ratcheting up interest rates. That's part of the mission of keeping prices under control, Gourinchas said, but it would sting economies.

"In the context in which the economy is already slowing down because of the uncertainty and the shocks that are hitting the global economy, it is going to make it that much more painful," he said.

He warned that as the economy slows, unemployment will rise, though job losses would "hopefully remain fairly modest."

The cost of living has been a major focus for the government's political opposition, attacking what they describe as a slow and ineffective response to inflation.

"Unfortunately, the prime minister is proposing to do exactly nothing for the vast majority of struggling families, which will get nothing, and even the small minority that do get something will find it gobbled up by increased inflation," said Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre earlier this week.

The NDP have blamed some inflation on corporate greed, and passed a motion — with unanimous all-party support —  to look into rising food prices.

The cost of food has outpaced the official rate of inflation, rising more than 11 per cent since this time last year.

WATCH | StatsCan head discusses rising prices:

Crunching the numbers: How does the inflation rate impact Canadians?

7 months ago
Duration 9:05
Statistics Canada Chief Statistician Anil Arora speaks with Rosemary Barton Live on the country's current inflation rate and explains where Canadians are feeling the impact most.

"We haven't seen this kind of increase year over year since 1981," said Anil Arora, chief statistician for Statistics Canada, in an interview on Rosemary Barton Live Sunday.

Arora said data shows inflation is having a significant effect on those with fixed incomes, such as seniors.

"It is worrisome. You can see it and the numbers do show it," he said.

Gina Kokoska, who lives in Nova Scotia, told Barton on Sunday that she had to cut her maternity leave short to return to work in order to keep up with rising costs, and were trying to cut expenses wherever they could

"We're coming into winter now and the cost of heating is exorbitant … we might be wearing a lot more sweaters this year."


Christian Paas-Lang covers federal politics for CBC News in Ottawa as an associate producer with The House and a digital writer with CBC Politics. You can reach him at christian.paas-lang@cbc.ca.

With files from Rosemary Barton and Tyler Buist

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