Latest from Éric Grenier
Analysis
With Wilson-Raybould and Philpott, the Commons' crew of Independent MPs enters uncharted territory
Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott have joined a record-setting cohort of Independents and MPs from "unrecognized" parties.
Analysis
What didn't happen in the N.L. election — and why that matters
The PCs didn't win and the NDP didn't tank - and other interesting non-results from the N.L election.
Analysis
Voters are opting for change at a rapid clip — and that's bad news for Justin Trudeau
Not since the Great Depression disrupted sitting governments across the country has any prime minister presided over a period of such sweeping political turnover as Justin Trudeau has ahead of October's federal election.
Analysis
How a Green breakthrough could redraw the electoral map
The Greens have the momentum - but how much further do they need to go to reach their goals?
Analysis
Contradictory polls agree on one thing: Dwight Ball's Liberals are in trouble
Three polls, three seemingly different narratives. But the numbers still point to trouble for Dwight Ball's Liberals.
Analysis
Trudeau, Singh both have reason to worry about Green byelection breakthrough
Paul Manly's byelection win for the Green Party in British Columbia was a shot across the bow of both the New Democrats and Liberals, two parties that took significant hits in support as the Greens leapfrogged from fourth to first.
Analysis
Conservatives, Liberals in closer fundraising race in decisive election battlegrounds
The Conservatives are dominating in fundraising nationwide, but where the money is coming from tells a different story.
Analysis
Another Liberal MP bows out of fall election — but Liberals haven't lost their incumbency edge
The list of Liberal incumbent MPs not running for re-election keeps growing, but the Liberals are still on track to have more incumbents on the ballot in this fall's vote than past first-term majority governments.
Parties filling coffers in record numbers for fall federal election
New figures show the Conservatives, Greens and Bloc hitting new highs in first-quarter fundraising, while Liberal first-quarter fundraising has also risen.
Analysis
Another Green breakthrough leaves the party wondering what might have been
As a result of last night's election in P.E.I. — and for the first time anywhere in Canada — a Green Party is forming an Official Opposition. But the polls suggested more was possible.
Analysis
With 6 months to go, Justin Trudeau is up against history
Federal governments that trail in the polls this far out from an election struggle to stay in power.
METHODOLOGY
Election vote and seat projections
Full methodology for Éric Grenier's vote and seat projections.
Analysis
For Rachel Notley and the Alberta NDP, the dial isn't moving fast enough
After three weeks on the campaign trail, the NDP needed a sign they were turning things around. They haven't gotten one.
Analysis
Alberta's election comes down to Calgary — again
In Alberta's elections, parties need to win any two of Edmonton, Calgary and the rest of the province to form a government. That's why Calgary will decide the outcome this time.
Analysis
Atlantic Canada goes from stronghold to point of vulnerability for Liberals
In a sense, the public outline of the SNC-Lavalin scandal emerged in Atlantic Canada with Scott Brison's resignation - and polls suggest it's in Atlantic Canada that the Liberals have suffered the most.