Éric Grenier

Politics and polls

Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.

Latest from Éric Grenier

Analysis

After the Bloc's gains in Quebec, Liberals now have another worry: a climbing NDP

Jagmeet Singh's NDP is gaining in the polls after last week's English-language debate.
Analysis

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

Gains by the Bloc in Quebec are erasing the Liberals' enduring seat advantage over the Conservatives.
Analysis

Polls say Singh won the English debate, but tonight the pressure is back on Bloc leader Blanchet

Polls suggest NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was the top performer in Monday's debate, but tonight's French-language debate puts the pressure on last week's TVA debate winner: Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet.
Analysis

Where are the voters that leaders need to reach in tonight's debate?

Each party leader has a smaller slice of the electorate they need to target in tonight's English-language leaders debate.
Analysis

Close elections like this one are rare — and hard to predict

It's rare for federal elections to be as close as this one appears to be, but past examples show us what we can — and can't — expect this time.
Analysis

Tonight's TVA debate could shake up the electoral map in Quebec

Quebec could be a decisive battleground in this election - and tonight four party leaders will make their pitch to the province's fickle electorate.
Analysis

What tipping point seats say about Liberal, Conservative paths to victory

What's the 170th seat that gives each party a majority government — and what does it say about their path to winning?
Analysis

To understand a party's election strategy, just follow the leader

The destinations parties choose for their leaders' press conferences and door-knocking events tells you a lot about what they’re trying to achieve — and avoid.
Analysis

Impact of blackface scandal unclear now, may not be revealed until ballots are cast

Polls this week might clarify what initial impact Justin Trudeau's blackface scandal had on voters, but its longer-term fallout is what will decide this election.
Analysis

Federal polls show a steady race — but lots of potential for swings to come

No trends are emerging in the early days of the campaign, with the polls still showing a tie between the Conservatives and Liberals after the first week.
Analysis

Dropping a candidate can cost a party support, but the impact is small

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer is sticking by his candidates while Green Leader Elizabeth May is re-vetting hers. But what is the impact of having to replace a name on the ballot?
Analysis

Liberals, Conservatives start campaign tied — but one party could have the edge

Forty days — and every one of them will count. It's rare for a Canadian federal election campaign to begin with the outcome so much in doubt. To call the 43rd federal election close would be an understatement. On Day One, it's literally as close as it can get.
Analysis

Why the TVA debate is one Justin Trudeau can't afford to miss

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has committed to participate in only one English TV debate but two in French. There's a good political reason for that.
Analysis

With less than a week to go, Manitoba's election remains Brian Pallister's to lose

The Manitoba Poll Tracker suggests Brian Pallister's Progressive Conservatives are on track for another majority government.
Analysis

Liberals, NDP missing incumbents where they need them most

It isn't the total number of incumbents not running for re-election that makes the difference. It's where they're missing that matters.