Zika outbreak expected to end in 2 to 3 years
Epidemic will reach a stage where there are too few people left to infect
The researchers, whose work is published in the journal Science, estimated that infections from the mosquito-borne virus will become so widespread in affected countries that populations will develop what is called "herd immunity." This occurs when a high percentage of a population has become immune to an infection either through developing natural immunity or through vaccination, making a wider outbreak less likely.
"Because the virus is unable to infect the same person twice — thanks to the immune system generating antibodies to kill it — the epidemic reaches a stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be sustained," study author Neil Ferguson of the School of Public Health at Imperial College London said in a statement.
The study was based on mathematical models of the virus, which has been shown to cause microcephaly, a birth defect marked by small head size that can lead to severe developmental problems in babies.
The researchers compared data from Zika's transmission across Latin America to data on similar viruses, such as dengue, to create a model of projected Zika transmission. They forecast that large-scale transmission will end in two to three years and not resume for a decade.
Ferguson said it may be too late to try to control mosquito populations to prevent widespread Zika transmission, and mosquito abatement efforts might delay and prolong the outbreak, which will eventually die out naturally.