Alberta Votes·Poll

NDP surging in Edmonton, improving in rest of Alberta, poll says

A new poll suggests Alberta voters are taking a serious look at the NDP.

NDP polling 40 per cent in Edmonton, 20 per cent province wide

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley may be smiling a bit more Thursday after a poll suggests her party holds a healthy lead in Edmonton and is gaining in other parts of the province. (CBC)

A new poll suggests Alberta voters are taking a serious look at the NDP.

"The first few days of this campaign are showing signs of a tremendously competitive race," Quito Maggi, president of the Mainstreet Technologies, said in a news release.

"The sudden surge of new support for the NDP in both Edmonton and across Alberta is the real story."

The poll shows the NDP with a commanding lead as the choice of 40 per cent of Edmonton voters and have improved to 20 per cent province wide.

The poll also found the Wildrose Party opening a slim lead over the Progressive Conservatives with 24 per cent of the vote across Alberta compared to the Tories' 21 per cent. A poll last week placed the two front runners in a dead heat.

"The real bad news for the PCs in these numbers is that among those certain and likely to vote, the numbers get worse," Maggi said. "They trail the Wildrose Party 33 per cent to 27 per cent with the NDP not far back at 25 per cent among decided certain and likely voters."

"The NDP could become a contender in this three way race with some growth in Calgary and if they can motivate those who might and are unlikely to vote."

Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt is skeptical of the poll results saying people who stick around to answer the questions of automated polls tend to be angry, skewing the results to opposition parties.

"Any time you use demon dials which isn't a live voice that the people who stay on the line are those that are angry," he said. "And those don't tend to be government supporters."

But he said the poll does show some vulnerability for the PC party, though he points to the large number of undecided voters.

The noncommissioned poll surveyed a random sample of 3,270 Alberta residents by Interactive Voice Response, a computerized telephone survey, on April 7. The poll includes cell phone samples.

The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of 20.

EdmontonCalgaryRest of Alberta
Progressive Conservatives16%26%20%
Wildrose Party7%24% 29%
Alberta Liberal Party10%9%10%
Alberta Party3%3%2%
Sample size110810181144


To encourage thoughtful and respectful conversations, first and last names will appear with each submission to CBC/Radio-Canada's online communities (except in children and youth-oriented communities). Pseudonyms will no longer be permitted.

By submitting a comment, you accept that CBC has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner CBC chooses. Please note that CBC does not endorse the opinions expressed in comments. Comments on this story are moderated according to our Submission Guidelines. Comments are welcome while open. We reserve the right to close comments at any time.

Become a CBC Member

Join the conversation  Create account

Already have an account?