Alberta Votes

Alberta's election could be 'irrational,' says Corey Hogan

A former Alberta Liberal Party director says there is no historical precedent for the May 5 provincial election and anything could happen as a result.

Political analyst says 'there's simply no historical data that is remotely relevant to our current situation'

When Albertans go to the polls May 5, it could be a "completely irrational election," according to former Alberta Liberal Party director Corey Hogan. (Jonathan Hayward/Canadian Press)

At least one political analyst believes the Alberta provincial election has all the makings of a perfect storm.

"People are walking in eyes closed, refusing to listen to anything and, frankly, voting or being prepared to vote in a bit of protest way without even realizing there could be consequences," said Corey Hogan, the director of engagement strategies with Hill + Knowlton.

If the latest polls are accurate, the NDP and the Wildrose are tied for first place, leaving the Tories battling it out on two fronts.

Corey Hogan is the director of engagement strategies for Hill + Knowlton Strategies. (Corey Hogan/LinkedIn)

Hogan, who is also a former executive director of the Alberta Liberal Party, recently wrote an article for his company's website called A Completely Irrational Election

In it he explains why the 2015 provincial election could be so different than years past.

No historical precedent

"There's simply no historical data that is remotely relevant to our current situation," writes Hogan.

Here's why:

  • Four new party leaders — not a single one of the parties has the same leader they had in 2012 election.
  • A party that was supposed to be dead (Wildrose) came back from the dead.
  • For the first time since the '80s, the Liberals are not running a candidate in every riding.
  • The Alberta Party is raising as much money as the PCs.
  • The NDP was never a big factor in Calgary before, but now it is.

"The effects of this are totally immeasurable at this point," said Hogan.

What's the point?

Even Calgary's mayor is trying to get people involved in the debate about the future of the province and encourage more people to vote.

"The key is let's start talking about policy. You know, so far I gotta say this election has been a bit Seinfeldian," said Naheed Nenshi.

Hogan calls polls a snapshot, but adds there are indications the PCs are really in trouble.

"I would agree with the mayor. It's an election about nothing in the sense that people are being very nihilistic about it. They feel like this election is not going to have any consequences," said Hogan.


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