Poll shows Giorgio Mammoliti trailing in council race — just don't tell that to Giorgio Mammoliti

A new survey suggests Anthony Perruzza is on track to defeat Giorgio Mammoliti in October’s municipal election — although Mammoliti maintains he’s still ahead and the poll is the work of his "lefty" foes.

Mainstreet Research releases early snapshot of 5 key races ahead of Toronto’s Oct. 22 election

Giorgio Mammoliti is trailing in the new Humber River-Black Creek ward with less than one month until Toronto's municipal election, a poll found this week. (Christopher Katsarov/Canadian Press)

A new survey suggests Anthony Perruzza is on track to defeat Giorgio Mammoliti in October's municipal election — although Mammoliti maintains he's still ahead and the poll is the work of his "lefty" foes.

Mainstreet Research looked at the battles in five key wards this week, including three redrawn wards where incumbents are squaring off.

The polling firm notes there are still a high number of undecided voters, meaning the numbers are far from a sure thing ahead of an election that's been shaken up by Premier Doug Ford's move to slash the size of city council.

Further, CBC News's research department points out the poll had a hard time reaching younger voters, so while the data was weighted, those age 18 to 34 are under-represented.

Quito Maggi, Mainstreet's president and CEO, said in a statement that as of today, "Mammoliti would be one of the big-name casualties in the new 25 ward city council," but "it is too early to make hard conclusions on who is going to win."

Here's a closer look at what the new poll found:

In Humber River-Black Creek, Perruzza, at 30.2 per cent support, leads Mammoliti and school trustee Tiffany Ford, who each have 21.1 per cent support. Deanna Sgro, who ran for the provincial Liberals in the spring election, was fourth with 17.2 per cent.

About 28 per cent of people said they are undecided.

Mammoliti, no stranger to controversy, was quick to blast the polling on Twitter, claiming he's seen three polls that put him ahead.

Elsewhere, incumbent Kristyn Wong-Tam holds a strong lead in Toronto Centre with 44 per cent support, but more than one-in-four (27.7 per cent) said they're backing former mayoral candidate George Smitherman. Lucy Troisi, at 7.7 per cent support, and Walied Khogali, at 3.5 per cent, are the next-best placed challengers.

In Scarborough-Agincourt, Jim Karygiannis has just a 3.3 per cent lead over Norm Kelly among decided and leaning voters.

Frances Nunziata leads in York South-Weston with 40.4 per cent support, compared to 30.2 per cent support for Frank Di Giorgio. Lekan Olawoye, who has put change at the heart of his campaign, has 7.2 per cent support, while Chiara Padovani is fourth, with 3.8 per cent support.

In the open race of Beaches-East York, former NDP MP Matthew Kellway has the support of more than half of those who are decided or leaning (56.3 per cent) while Diane Dyson and David Del Grande have 7.5 per cent and 7.4 per cent support, respectively. However, 54.5 per cent say they're undecided.

Mainstreet's poll was conducted on Sept. 24 and 25 using interactive voice response technology.

Each ward has a different margin of error. For comparison purposes only a probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of:

  • Humber River-Black Creek: +/- 4.59 per cent
  • Toronto Centre: +/- 4.1 per cent​
  • Scarborough-Agincourt: +/- 3.9 per cent
  • York South-Weston: +/- 4.01 per cent
  • Beaches-East York: +/- 3.94 per cent


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