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Doug Ford's government hurt Andrew Scheer in Ontario, Vote Compass data suggests

Justin Trudeau's Liberals are projected to capture a minority government on Monday night, and they did it by holding on to seats Doug Ford won provincially. So can Andrew Scheer blame Ford for the Conservative loss? Maybe, Vote Compass data suggests.

Liberals win big in Toronto and 905, taking seats Ford won provincially

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, right, and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer met at Queen's Park last October. But this fall, Ford didn't campaign for Scheer in Ontario and Scheer rarely mentioned the premier's name. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)

Justin Trudeau's Liberals are projected to capture a minority government on Monday night, and they did it by holding on to seats Doug Ford won provincially.

Trudeau's candidates won in Etobicoke — the heart of so-called "Ford Nation" — and in 905 ridings, all areas where Andrew Scheer campaigned hard.  

So can Scheer blame Ford for the loss? Although plenty of issues shaped Monday's outcome, Vote Compass data suggests he may have a case.

Vote Compass posed this question to 24,623 Ontario respondents from Oct. 11- Oct. 15: "Have Doug Ford's policies in Ontario made you more or less likely to consider voting for the Conservative Party of Canada in the upcoming federal election?"

More than half — 51 per cent — said they were much less likely to support the Conservatives.

Vote Compass asked 24,623 Ontario respondents: 'Have Doug Ford's policies in Ontario made you more or less likely to consider voting for the Conservative Party of Canada in the upcoming federal election?' (Vote Compass/CBC)

Just 11 per cent, on the other hand, said they were somewhat or much more likely to support the federal Conservatives due to Ford.

About a quarter of those who responded suggested the Ford factor didn't matter to them, and about half of those (53 per cent) who identified themselves as Conservatives said the premier's policies wouldn't make a difference to their vote.

But the data clearly shows Ford turned off many potential voters.

The most likely people to turn away from the Conservatives due to Ford were women (about six in ten said they were much less likely to vote Conservative due to Ford). Younger voters were also more likely to report that Ford was negatively affecting the federal party's chances.

Women who took Vote Compass were the most likely to say Doug Ford's actions would lead them to vote against the Conservatives. (Vote Compass/CBC)

More than half of the Conservatives who answered the question — 53 per cent — said Ford's actions didn't make them more or less likely to vote blue. About 19 per cent said they were more likely to vote Conservative due to Ford, but 18 per cent said they were less likely to back their party due to what's happening in Ontario.

The "Ford factor" has been talked about throughout the campaign. Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer rarely spoke of the Ontario premier, while Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh frequently brought up Ford's name to highlight the risk of electing conservative governments.

Ford himself stayed away from the election, holding just two news conferences and avoiding the campaign trail. His government has not sat since June. 

About Vote Compass

Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in Canada exclusively by CBC/Radio-Canada.

Unlike online opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data are a non-random sample from the population and have been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample. Vote Compass data have been weighted by gender, age, education, language and region to ensure the sample's composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to census data and other population estimates.

This year, 1.8 million people used Vote Compass.

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