PEI

Hurricane season expected to land another blow to Atlantic coast

Another active hurricane season, with up to six major hurricanes, is expected along the Atlantic coast this year.

2022 forecasted to be 7th straight above-average hurricane season

2020 and 2021 were the first and third most active hurricane seasons on record. (Graham Hughes/Canadian Press)

Another active hurricane season is expected to take the Atlantic coast by storm this year.

The U.S.'s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with corroboration from the Canadian Hurricane Centre, gave the blow-by-blow account Tuesday. They predict a 65 per cent chance of an above-average hurricane season. It would be the seventh consecutive hurricane season considered to be above average. 

NOAA is predicting 14 to 21 named storms. Six to 10 of those storms could become hurricanes, of which three to six could be major hurricanes. The average number of named storms in a season is 14.

Contributing factors to the hurricane forecast include an ongoing La Niña, weaker trade winds and warmer than normal ocean water. 

The U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting up to 10 hurricanes on the Atlantic coast this season, including up to six it would consider major. (Jay Scotland/CBC)

"When the wind is more erratic, changing speed or direction with height, we call that a high shear environment and it is harder for storms to strengthen," said CBC meteorologist Jay Scotland. "In a La Niña phase, we see less wind shear in the tropical Atlantic which can result in more hurricanes."

An enhanced west African monsoon, where many Atlantic hurricanes first develop, is also a concern, according to NOAA.

The 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. All 21 could be exhausted again this year. (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, with September usually the peak month for the Atlantic provinces.

"Warmer sea-surface temperatures are also a concern here in Atlantic Canada. Tropical storms and hurricanes are fuelled by warm ocean water, ideally over 26.5 C. The closer to that temperature the water is surrounding the Maritimes, the longer an approaching storm is able to maintain its strength," Scotland said.

"Warmer water here in the Maritimes come late summer and early fall, could mean less weakening of an approaching storm and possibly a higher impact." 

The 2022 forecast comes on the heels of the first and third most active seasons on record, in 2020 and 2021. 2005 was the only other year when all 21 storm names were used.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Shane Ross

Journalist

Shane Ross is a journalist with CBC News on Prince Edward Island. Previously, he worked as a newspaper reporter and editor in Halifax, Ottawa and Charlottetown. You can reach him at shane.ross@cbc.ca.

Comments

To encourage thoughtful and respectful conversations, first and last names will appear with each submission to CBC/Radio-Canada's online communities (except in children and youth-oriented communities). Pseudonyms will no longer be permitted.

By submitting a comment, you accept that CBC has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner CBC chooses. Please note that CBC does not endorse the opinions expressed in comments. Comments on this story are moderated according to our Submission Guidelines. Comments are welcome while open. We reserve the right to close comments at any time.

Become a CBC Member

Join the conversation  Create account

Already have an account?

now