Short winter possible for Ottawa, Environment Canada predicts
Senior climatologist expects good ice-building weather for Winterlude 2019
Most of January will be colder than normal, but spring may arrive earlier, according to Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips.
He predicts this month's chill won't set in right away, with the first week of January bringing see-sawing conditions.
But after that there will be more cold, and more snow that will actually stick around. While Ottawa got plenty of snow in November, most of it melted away.
The dead of winter, the coldest days of the year, will probably be Jan. 22 and 23 — and then temperatures will slowly start to climb up, Phillips said.
Good conditions for Winterlude predicted
There's potentially some good news for this year's Winterlude festival, which runs from Feb. 1-18.
"[There will be] polar vortex, Siberian express kind of weather and that may be just great for growing ice for the Winterlude," Phillips said.
Overall he predicts a shorter winter than last season, with spring arriving in March, not early May as it did in 2018.
"It may not be … as long and maybe as brutal at times as what we saw last year," he said.
But it's not an exact science. With shorter and shorter weather patterns, and it being an El Niño year — with warmer water in the Pacific Ocean — he said it's difficult to predict how February and March will turn out.
Long-range models uncertain
While a strong or moderate El Niño year can indicate a milder than normal winter, Phillips said this year's long-range models have been uncertain.
"El Niño can give you a little bit of a hint, a tease, as to what the winter's going to be, but hey, I wouldn't bet the family farm or the fishing fleet on it," he said. "There's never a guarantee with weather in the Ottawa area.
"We run our big computers in Montreal, the largest computers in Canada, and it comes out with our seasonal forecast. You know, one day it's showing milder than normal, the next day it's uncertain," said Phillips.
But overall, winters in Canada are not as icy and cold as they used to be and statistics show they are getting warmer. Phillips said it's definitely a factor for events such as Winterlude that rely on cold conditions.
In December, for example, there was more rain than snow.
"When you see from the snowiest national capital in the world, to have more rain than snow in December, is just not what it normally would be," Phillips said.
With files from the CBC's Amanda Pfeffer