Erin brings heavy rain, gusty winds to the Maritimes through Thursday night
The post-tropical storm could bring more than 80 mm of rain by Friday morning
Post-tropical storm Erin is still on the way for Thursday night, but we're already seeing rain at times heavy across the Maritimes today, well ahead of the storm.
An incoming cold front is bringing its own round of rain and also helping to funnel in tropical moisture from Erin.
The storm itself will arrive Thursday night and we'll be seeing the heaviest rainfall near and to the left of Erin's track and the strongest winds to the right of the track.
Believe it or not, forecast models are still at odds with the exact track for Erin, ranging from a track over southeast New Brunswick to central Nova Scotia. That said, I believe the most likely track will be over southwest Nova Scotia tonight, then across P.E.I. on Friday morning.
RPM model timeline projection for rainfall today into Friday. <br>Western Nova Scotia, southeast New Brunswick & PEI looking mostly likely to be in the cross-hairs for the heaviest rainfall. <br>Rain tracks west to east overnight. <br>Clearing Friday morning!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NSStorm?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NSStorm</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBStorm?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBStorm</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PEStorm?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PEStorm</a> <a href="https://t.co/l3BwDN5ujp">pic.twitter.com/l3BwDN5ujp</a>—@ryansnoddon
Near and to the left of Erin's track, we'll likely see a widespread area with rainfall amounts in the 40-80 mm range. More than 100 mm is possible in some localized areas.
The heaviest rain will be tracking through tonight, and we could see localized pockets of 50 mm of rain in a 12-hour period. This amount of rain over such a short period of time will bring the risk for localized flash flooding.
The strongest winds with these types of storms are found near and to the right of the track. Based on the current track, the strongest winds with gusts 60-80 km/h, are looking set for the Atlantic coastline from Halifax, up the Eastern Shore and Cape Breton. Les Suetes winds could top 100 km/h. This could lead to some power outages and minor tree damage.
Wind gusts of 60-80 km/h are on tap for the Atlantic coastline tonight from the South Shore through the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Halifax?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Halifax</a> region, up the Eastern Shore and then into Cape Breton. <br>Gusty winds continue into Friday morning for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CapeBreton?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CapeBreton</a>, where Les Suetes may top 100 km/h/<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NSStorm?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NSStorm</a> <a href="https://t.co/cjIngKEMfz">pic.twitter.com/cjIngKEMfz</a>—@ryansnoddon
Nova Scotia Power has activated its emergency operations centre, and the utility will be placing crews around the province to make sure it can respond safely and quickly to outages as needed.
We'll see some high surf and pounding waves of up to four meters along the Eastern Shore and for Cape Breton, overnight Thursday and into Friday morning.
I'll be keeping you posted throughout the day on the live blog, on CBC Radio and of course I'll have another update this evening at 6 p.m. on CBC-TV.
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