New Brunswick

It's election eve and the race is at its tightest point yet

The 2018 New Brunswick election is Monday, and we want to deliver the latest news from the campaign trail with our daily newsletter.

We break down the ridings to watch for on Monday night

Good evening,

We've made it. It's been a long month, but in mere hours New Brunswickers will head to the polls to vote in the provincial election.

And to add a bit of spice to the mix, we have a Poll Tracker update that indicates the race is tightening among the top four parties.

Also, the CBC's Dan McHardie breaks down the ridings to watch on Monday.

And have you received an unsolicited call or text from a group called New Brunswick Proud? Nathalie Sturgeon looks into the group that's drawn the attention of the chief electoral officer.

Quick note: There will be no election newsletter Monday night as we wait for votes to be counted, but a fresh 506er will be in online first thing Tuesday morning.

Now, here's what we're talking about on Sunday, Day 32:

Programming note

CBC New Brunswick has been along for the ride from the get-go, and we'll be with you when the winners and losers are announced Monday night.

Tune in to our comprehensive election coverage on television, beginning at 7:30 p.m., and radio, beginning at 8 p.m., for up-to-the-minute tracking of the returns and incisive analysis.

And don't forget about the web. Visit cbc.ca/nb for breaking news and our interactive electoral map.

Top headlines

New Brunswickers are heading to the polls on Monday to elect a new government. When the legislature dissolved, there were 24 Liberals, 21 Progressive Conservatives, one Green, one Independent and two vacancies. (CBC)
A group called New Brunswick Proud has been making unsolicited calls and texts to New Brunswickers in the days before the election. (CBC)
The smaller parties could have a big impact come election night. From left, NDP Leader Jennifer McKenzie, Green Party Leader David Coon and People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin at a debate. (Marc Grandmaison/The Canadian Press)
  • Here's what election night could mean for smaller parties
    • New Brunswick has been a two-party province for decades, but a surge up the polls by two upstart parties seems to suggest a desire for alternatives beyond the Liberals and Tories. And that could have a major impact on the outcome.
People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin, Green Party Leader David Coon, Liberal Leader Brian Gallant, Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs and NDP Leader Jennifer McKenzie. (CBC, CBC, James West/Canadian Press, CBC, CBC)

The pulse

The New Brunswick Poll Tracker was updated the day before election day and it suggests an even tighter race. The Greens and People's Alliance saw small upticks, while the other three parties dipped in the aggregated polling.

The Liberals held a 10-percentage-point advantage over the Tories, but that has also narrowed heading into Monday.

The latest update to the New Brunswick Poll Tracker suggests the race has tightened between the top four parties. (CBC)

CBC poll analyst Eric Grénier's seat projections show the People's Alliance could not only win its first seat but also move into the third-party position — spelling trouble for the Tories, who have cautioned voters against vote-splitting on the right.

The Greens are expected to have a seat, maybe two, in the next legislature. 

The Liberals have the highest probability of winning a majority, at 81.1 per cent, while the possibility of a PC majority or minority remain low.

The Liberals have a strong probability of keeping their majority, according to the New Brunswick Poll Tracker. (CBC)

Where the leaders were

Kris Austin: Campaigning in Fredericton-Grand Lake.

David Coon: Campaigning in Fredericton South.

Brian Gallant: Rally with Atlantic premiers in Moncton; stops in Saint-Louis-de-Kent, Pokemouche, Tracadie, and Neguac.

Blaine Higgs: Rallies in Saint George, Fredericton, Chipman, Sussex and Quispamsis.

Jennifer McKenzie: Campaigning in Saint John Harbour.

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More coverage

For complete coverage | Links to all New Brunswick Votes 2018 stories

New Brunswick Poll Tracker | Get the latest projections here

Vote Compass | See how your views compare with the parties' platforms

Help CBC track political ads on Facebook | Learn how here

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