New Brunswick

Liberals leap ahead in new poll after Holt win, health-care woes

The New Brunswick Liberals have jumped into a large polling lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives following the election of Susan Holt as the party’s new leader.

Party has its best showing in Narrative polling since losing power in 2018

The increase in the polls for the New Brunswick Liberal Party comes after they elected their new leader Susan Holt earlier this month. It also comes after a difficult time for the governing Progressive Conservatives on the health-care file. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

The New Brunswick Liberals have jumped into a large polling lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives following the election of Susan Holt as the party's new leader.

The latest quarterly poll by Narrative Research shows the Liberals with the support of 41 per cent of respondents, compared to 30 per cent for the PCs, if an election were held now.

In Narrative's last poll released in May, the two parties were tied with 34 per cent support each.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 4 to 22, meaning almost all of the sampling was done after Holt won the Liberal leadership on Aug. 6.

It also coincided with a litany of health-care horror stories, including long emergency department wait times and the sporadic, unplanned closure of some hospital services around the province.

Fourteen per cent of Narrative respondents said they would vote Green, 11 per cent said they would support the NDP, and five per cent said they would cast ballots for the People's Alliance.

Narrative found 53 per cent of respondents were mostly or completely dissatisfied with the government of Premier Blaine Higgs, compared to only 40 per cent who were mostly or completely satisfied.

The margin of error on the party voting intention numbers would be plus or minus 5.8 percentage points for a sample that size in 19 out of 20 surveys.

For the satisfaction numbers, the margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.

Highest since 2018

The 41 per cent support for the Liberals in the new poll is their best result since the party lost power in 2018.

The Higgs PCs had led the Liberals consistently in Narrative's quarterly polling since winning the 2020 election, but they tumbled in the firm's November 2021 poll after the ending of COVID-19 mandates and a subsequent spike in cases.

In that poll, the Liberals led the PCs 38-28.

The two parties were statistically tied in the next two quarterly polls in February and May of this year.


Jacques Poitras

Provincial Affairs reporter

Jacques Poitras has been CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick since 2000. He grew up in Moncton and covered Parliament in Ottawa for the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal. He has reported on every New Brunswick election since 1995 and won awards from the Radio Television Digital News Association, the National Newspaper Awards and Amnesty International. He is also the author of five non-fiction books about New Brunswick politics and history.


To encourage thoughtful and respectful conversations, first and last names will appear with each submission to CBC/Radio-Canada's online communities (except in children and youth-oriented communities). Pseudonyms will no longer be permitted.

By submitting a comment, you accept that CBC has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner CBC chooses. Please note that CBC does not endorse the opinions expressed in comments. Comments on this story are moderated according to our Submission Guidelines. Comments are welcome while open. We reserve the right to close comments at any time.

Become a CBC Account Holder

Join the conversation  Create account

Already have an account?