Manitoba

Poll finds support for federal Liberals slipping in Manitoba

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals might be facing a rocky ride with Manitoba voters if numbers from a new poll hold up during the next federal election, now less than a year away.

Liberal support falls 11 points provincewide, according to Probe Research survey

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party have lost support in Manitoba compared to the 2015 election, according to new a Probe Research survey. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)

Justin Trudeau's Liberals might be facing a rocky ride with Manitoba voters if numbers from a new poll hold up during the next federal election, now less than a year away.

The Probe Research poll found support for the federal Liberals has fallen 11 points across Manitoba, and a full 14 per cent in ridings outside Winnipeg, since the 2015 federal election.

The survey reached 1,105 Manitobans at random between Nov. 27 and Dec. 6.

Forty-two per cent of Manitobans plan to vote for the Tories, according to the poll, while 34 per cent said they'll vote Liberal. Sixteen per cent of voters said they'll support the NDP, and support for the Greens and People's Party of Canada came in at five and two per cent, respectively.

The poll found support for the Liberals fell 11 per cent since the previous election, while Conservative support is up seven points since 2015. (Photo submitted by Probe Research)

While the poll found the Liberals continue to lead the Conservatives in Winnipeg, support for the governing party has fallen from 53 per cent in 2015 to 43 per cent. The poll found 33 per cent of Winnipeggers plan to vote for the Tories.

That support within the Perimeter Highway was strongest in the core, where 46 per cent of respondents said they will vote Liberal, 24 per cent plan to vote NDP and 18 per cent said they plan to vote Conservative.

The Liberals also maintained a significant lead over the Conservatives in the city's northwest and southwest, but the two parties were statistically tied in the southeast and northeast.

Outside of Winnipeg voters overwhelmingly told pollsters they aren't going to vote Liberal.

The survey found only 19 per cent of voters plan to vote Liberal in rural ridings, down from 33 per cent in 2015, while 58 per cent of decided voters told pollsters they'll support the Conservatives this time around, up from 48 per cent in the last election.

The poll found the Liberals continue to lead the Conservatives in Winnipeg, but the Tories are neck and neck with the governing party in the city's southeast and northeast. (Photo submitted by Probe Research)

The survey also found 48 per cent of male voters in Manitoba plan to vote Conservative, compared to 31 per cent who said they'd vote Liberal.

On the other hand female voters appear to be torn between the two parties, with 37 per cent pledging Liberal support, and 36 per cent planning to vote Conservative.

Probe was in the field between Nov. 27 and Dec. 6 of this year.  A randomized sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey's population sub-groups.


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