3-way tie in Fort Rouge poll, surprises Manitoba political analyst

Candidates running in Fort Rouge are in a statistical dead heat according to a new poll by Mainstreet/Postmedia and a political analyst says that's a surprising boost for the Progressive Conservative candidate.

Political analyst says Fort Rouge PC candidate is the big winner in first constituency level poll

A new poll by Mainstreet/Postmedia shows three main party candidates running in Fort Rouge are in a statistical dead heat. From left to right, Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari, Progressive Conservative candidate Audrey Gordon and NDP candidate Wab Kinew. (CBC)

Candidates running in Fort Rouge are in a statistical dead heat according to a new poll by Mainstreet/Postmedia and a political analyst says that's a surprising boost for the Progressive Conservative candidate. 

While Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari leads the poll with 26 per cent support in Fort Rouge, her advantage is squarely within the margin of error.

The Progressive Conservatives' Audrey Gordon and NDP's Wab Kinew are close at Bokhari's heels, with 24 per cent support. Green candidate Grant Sharp trails far behind main party candidates with 6 per cent support.

"If this poll is correct, I think Audrey Gordon is the big winner in this poll. I think if anyone should be doing high-fives on this poll it should be Audrey Gordon," said political analyst Christopher Adams. 

Adams said political observers had thought the star power of former broadcaster New Democrat Wab Kinew and the leader status of Liberal Rana Bokhari made it a two-way race. 

"We'd been thinking... those were the two front runners and the others were 'also rans' but we also see the Progressive Conservative candidate Audrey Gordon and she's really in there. So it's a three-way race," Adams said. 

At a campaign stop Thursday, Bokhari said the results don't deter her. 

"We're doing what we have to do, which is working hard, knocking on doors," Bokhari said. "I'm as concerned as I was day one. I'm as concerned as I was when Jennifer Howard was still the incumbent. My position has not changed. I knew what I had to do when I walked in and I'm continuing to do that." 

Kinew stepped into the race after veteran Fort Rouge NDP MLA Jennifer Howard unexpectedly pulled out just weeks before the election was called. 

Bokhari said while she campaigns for premier she also knows she has to focus on her own constituency. 

"But it's a tight race! So let's not pretend that it's not going to be a tight race," the Liberal Leader said. 

"The race in Fort Rouge is coming down to the wire," said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research in a news release.

"Perhaps unexpectedly this is a three-way race, not a two-way race. Bokhari is leading within the margin of error."
(Source: Mainstreet/Postmedia )

Large number of undecided voters 

Significantly 20 per cent of respondents in Fort Rouge said they still weren't sure which party they would vote for if the election was today.

"With one in five voters in Fort Rouge undecided this is anyone's game," said Maggi.

Among decided voters only, the Liberal's Bokhari has 32 per cent of the vote, the PC's Gordon has 30 per cent and the NDP's Kinew has 30 per cent, according to the poll.

The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.81 per cent, 19 times out of 20.


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