Manitoba

Lindenwoods could be game changer for Winnipeg South Centre

For election 2015, the swing-riding Winnipeg South Centre now includes the suburban neighbourhood, Lindenwoods. CBC News crunched the numbers from the 2011 election, with Lindenwoods in the mix, Conservative Joyce Bateman would have beaten the Liberals by 2,128 votes, instead of 722.

New electoral boundaries mean Tories would have had firmer grip on Winnipeg South Centre

Lindenwoods could be game changer for Winnipeg South Centre

CBC News: Winnipeg at 6:00

6 years ago
1:45
Electoral boundary changes in some Manitoba ridings could have an impact on the results in this federal election 1:45

Electoral boundary changes in some Manitoba ridings could have an impact on the results in this federal election.

The boundaries change every 10 years to reflect population shifts. The 2013 changes would have impacted two Winnipeg ridings most intensely — Winnipeg South Centre and Winnipeg North.

2011 election: Conservatives won by 722 votes, New boundary: Conservatives would have won by 2,128 votes (CBC )
2011 election: Liberals won by 44 votes, New boundary: NDP would have won by 109 votes (CBC)

For election 2015, the swing-riding Winnipeg South Centre now includes the suburban neighbourhood, Lindenwoods. CBC News crunched the numbers from the 2011 election, with Lindenwoods in the mix, Conservative Joyce Bateman would have beaten the Liberals by 2,128 votes, instead of 722.

River Heights Liberal voter Rais Khan, 81, said his level of anxiety has risen since the riding expanded.

"Lindenwoods has a lot of Conservative votes and it could change the game," he said.

Conservative voter Darryl Bukoski, 67, lives in Lindenwoods and will vote in Winnipeg South Centre for the first time. He always votes Conservative and plans to again.

"Bateman is probably better known to us because she's an incumbent," he said. "We don't know that much about the other parties. We haven't seen the other parties come visit us."

We've always leaned Conservative.- Lindenwoods  voter  Darryl   Bukoski

Prior to this election, Lindenwoods was part of Winnipeg South, but Bukoski isn't concerned with joining a more politically diverse "swing-riding."

"Probably doesn't make much difference to us," he said. "We've always leaned Conservative in terms of our votes."

Liberals lead in polls

Even with the new neighbourhood added, the most recent polling data puts Liberal candidate Jim Carr in the lead in Winnipeg South Centre with 38 per cent of decided voters, while 31 per cent would vote for Conservative Joyce Bateman and 23 per cent would vote for Matt Henderson with the NDP.
Electoral boundary changes mean Tories would have had firmer hold of Winnipeg South Centre because of voters in Lindenwoods. (CBC)

The leftist group LeadNow.ca paid Environics to poll the riding September 18 to 21. It used Interactive Voice Response technology to sample 597 voters and has a margin of error of 4.0 and is considered accurate 19 times out of 20.

For the first time in his life, 58-year-old Lindenwoods resident Dan Torbiak said he plans to vote Liberal instead of Conservative.

"It's a big election for me and one that I've obviously had to think a lot about, but it might be a tectonic plate shift in my voting," he said.

Torbiak said putting in his first-ever Liberal-red lawn sign was "interesting".

"I thought back to my father. If he was alive and saw it, he might have a few stern words for me, but I'm pretty satisfied with the colour of my sign," he said. 

Altered Winnipeg North results

The 2013 electoral boundaries changes would have altered the outcome of the 2011 federal election in Winnipeg North.

In 2011, Liberal Kevin Lamoureux won by only 44 votes. However, with the addition of a handful of polling stations in the north east of the riding, New Democrat Rebecca Blaikie would have won by 109 votes.

"Well, you run, you give it your all, you win or you lose and then you move on," Blaikie said on the phone from Montreal after hearing she would have been the MP if the riding redistribution had happened before 2011.

Blaikie is now the campaign director for the NDP in Quebec.

Blaikie said the changes will help Levy Abad, the New Democrat challenging Lamoureux this time.

"It was in play, that means it's still in play, that means it's even more in play, which is good news for the NDP," she said.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Chris Glover

CBC News Reporter

Chris Glover has been a reporter, anchor and producer with CBC News for a decade. He’s an award winning storyteller, who has travelled the country in search of fascinating characters with compelling stories to share on TV, radio and online. A series he helped spearhead at CBC Toronto, No Fixed Address, won a national RTDNA award in 2017 and the municipal election special he anchored in 2018 was just nominated for an RTDNA award for best live special.

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