Liberals, Conservatives neck and neck in Manitoba, poll finds

After battling it out for eight weeks on the campaign trail, the federal Liberals and Conservatives appear to be pulling out in front in Manitoba, according to a new poll.

Parties tied with 39% of voter support, with NDP falling to 3rd place with 18% in recent survey

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, left to right, Conservative Leader and Prime Minister Stephen Harper, New Democratic Party Leader Thomas Mulcair, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau shake hands before the start of the French-language leaders' debate in Montreal on Thursday, Sept. 24, 2015. (Christinne Muschi/Canadian Press)

After battling it out for eight weeks on the campaign trail, the federal Liberals and Conservatives appear to be pulling out in front in Manitoba, according to a new poll.

Probe Research says of the 1,000 Manitobans they surveyed randomly in a recent poll, two out of every five Manitobans said they would vote either Liberal or Conservative (39 per cent each) if the election were held tomorrow. 

Meanwhile, support for the NDP has dropped to 18 per cent, down from 26 per cent in the 2011 election.

"Part of the reason [the NDP] don't do as well is, provincially, the party is down and Manitobans are not that enthused about the idea of electing an NDP government — they've had one provincially for the past 16 years," says Curtis Brown with Probe Research.

If they hold, those numbers would constitute a big jump for the Liberals in Manitoba, which reeled in less than 20 per cent of the votes in the province in the last federal election.

Brown says the results are somewhat remarkable as the Liberals had a poor showing the last time around.

"In the last four years, and in this campaign period, they have been able to make up a lot of ground," says Brown.

Liberals leading in Winnipeg

The ratios change depending on where you look in the province, Probe Research says.

In Winnipeg, 33 per cent of those polled said they would vote Conservative, 42 per cent favoured the Liberals and 21 per cent showed support for the NDP.

"[The Liberals] are leading in the city of Winnipeg and that's pretty significant," Brown added.

Outside of Winnipeg, 49 per cent would vote PC and 33 per cent said they would vote Liberal, with 13 per cent saying they would vote NDP.

As was the result in the 2011 federal election, four per cent said they would vote for the Green Party in Manitoba.

Results from the poll, which was commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press, are considered 95 per cent accurate within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would be were the entire Manitoba voting population surveyed.

Canadians go to the polls on Oct. 19, 2015.


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