How did your Manitoba neighbours vote in the last federal election?

CBC Manitoba crunched the numbers to find out how Manitobans in each riding voted poll by poll in the 2011 federal election.

CBC Manitoba crunched the numbers to see how Manitobans in each riding voted in 2011

(Jacques Marcoux/CBC)

If voting patterns in the upcoming federal election mirror the last election in 2011, how Manitobans will vote will be decided by where they live, according to a CBC News analysis.

The analysis, run poll by poll, showed how each party fared in every neighbourhood.

The Conservative Party dominated rural Manitoba and Winnipeg's suburbs. Northern Manitoba and Winnipeg's core were mostly split between the Liberals and the NDP. 

These are the key findings in looking at the 2011 voting results for each of the 2,681 voting stations across the province.

2011 vs. 2015

It will be difficult for candidates to make ground on the Conservatives in rural areas, said Curtis Brown, vice-president of Winnipeg-based Probe Research.

"Further from the center of the city, the better the Conservatives do," he said. 

In the St. James Assiniboia riding, voters on Shelmerdine Drive bucked the trend and cast ballots for the NDP. The riding went Conservative in the last election. 

Karen Owzarek lives across Shelmerdine Drive from a housing co-op. A Conservative supporter and volunteer, she was also surprised to hear the poll in 2011 went to the NDP.

She thinks the main difference between now and 2011 is people are trying to vote out a government as opposed to supporting one of the other parties.

"It's not as though people are voting for Liberals or for NDP, I think they are voting against a government they think has been in too long."

The Elections Canada polling station data reveals nearly 90% of polling stations in rural Manitoba were won by the Conservatives. In contrast, the NDP only secured 12% of rural polling stations and the Liberals were nearly non-existent with only 1% outside of urban areas.

Despite their strong rural support, the Conservatives also lead the way in terms of polling station victories in Winnipeg suburbs, Steinbach, Portage and most of Brandon during the last general election.  

Winnipeg North tight race

In 2011, Liberal incumbent, Kevin Lamoureux, won his Winnipeg North seat by a mere 44 votes. The race was so tight that a judicial recount was required to confirm his victory over his NDP opponent, Rebecca Blaikie. 

Despite his victory, the map reveals that Blaikie had more geographically widespread support throughout the riding, winning 79 polling stations compared to 56 for Lamoureux.

Adding to the challenge for Lamoureux on this upcoming election day, is the fact that Canada's Electoral Boundaries Commissions modified Winnipeg North's boundaries, and according to Elections Canada, had the new boundaries been used in 2011, the NDP would have won the riding by 109 votes. 

Uphill battle for the Liberals in St.Boniface

With conservative MP Shelly Glover stepping down from her St. Boniface seat, many analysts believe that former city councillor and Liberal candidate Dan Vandal is a strong contender.

However, the poll data reveals that the Liberals have an up hill battle, having won only 33 of the 195 polling stations in 2011 -- nearly all of which were concentrated in north St, Boniface. The remainder of the riding, south to the perimeter, is essentially Conservative territory. 

"Old St. Boniface is more likely to vote Liberal and is staunchly Liberal and if you were to go back and you were to do that same exercise in St. Boniface for the 2008 and 2006 elections the red would have gone a lot more south," said Curtis Brown. 

"I think for Dan Vandal his success is going to have to come in some of those areas like Southdale, Windsor Park some of those areas, right in the middle between the older part of the riding and newer parts of the riding. That  might be challenge a little bit by the fact that Erin Selby is running for the NDP and that's the area that she represents," added Brown.  

Battle for Winnipeg-Centre

Last fall during the civic elections in Winnipeg, mayoral candidate Robert-Falcon Ouellette captured a significant number of votes from Winnipeg's core and North End. Curtis Brown believes that under the Liberal banner, Ouellette could do quite well, but adds that his support base, also tends to have historically lower-than-average voter turnout.
"Pat Martin tends to win a lot of the polls in Wolseley and the West End. Those areas tend to have stronger NDP support and they also tend to have higher voter turnout," said Brown. 

*Map does not take into account votes cast through mobile stations or mail-in ballots.


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