Manitoba

Inflation may bite into Manitobans' pent-up festive spirit ahead of holiday spending

Some Manitobans are trying to balance the excitement of winter holidays with the highest inflation rate since 2003. 

Even rising cost of day-to-day life might not be enough to dampen spending this winter, says economist

Jamie and Donovan Roehl finish some shopping with their children Eden, 3, and Elden, 1, in Winnipeg. (Sam Samson/CBC)

Groceries. A new house. Renovations. Gas. The holiday season.

It's all piling up for the Roehl family.

"We normally get the kids lots of gifts or whatever they have on their wish list, but it's only going to be a couple things each now," said Donovan Roehl, who lives in Brandon, Man., with his wife and three children.

"It's just bills, bills and bills."

The Roehl family is among many Manitobans who are trying to balance the excitement of winter holidays with the highest inflation rate since 2003

Statistics Canada reports the national inflation rate hit 4.7 per cent last month. That means along with rising day-to-day costs, upcoming spending on Black Friday, Cyber Monday and general holiday sales will add up — while wage increases haven't kept pace with inflation.

But last year's holiday pandemic restrictions, which limited gatherings and the sale of non-essential items, could have shoppers eager to spend.

"After two years of being kind of cooped up, I think that everyone, including me, wants to go out and celebrate a little bit," said Shiu-Yik Au, an assistant professor of accounting and finance at the University of Manitoba's Asper School of Business.

Shiu-Yik Au, assistant professor of accounting and finance at the Asper School of Business, says Manitobans should enjoy life while still saving for an uncertain financial future. (Submitted by Shiu-Yik Au)

At the same time, Au suggests saving should be a priority right now.

The high inflation rate after almost two years of global financial uncertainty is splitting economists, he said. Some believe the inflation spike is temporary, while others think it's a sign of what's to come — a constant rise.

"If you're an economist or a high-level investment manager, this is a turbulent and scary time because we literally haven't seen anything like this in 100 years," said Au.

"They're getting ready for anything that could happen … and I hope that every Manitoban is also doing the same."

Precarious position for middle class

Winnipeg business owner Meron Gebrit is among those feeling the financial crunch.

She's trying to balance her budget with a desire to celebrate Christmas in a big way this year.

"Even the gatherings — you want to get together, but you have to be careful. And the costs are going up exponentially, so that makes a big difference," said Gebrit, who owns Specs Appeal Optical, an optometry store.

Statistics Canada reports between October 2020 and October 2021, the cost of meat rose by 10.1 per cent in Manitoba, while natural gas was up 31.1 per cent and gasoline by 39.2 per cent. 

Winnipeg business owner Meron Gebrit says she'll be watching how much she spends this Christmas since regular grocery shopping eats up a lot of her budget. (Walther Bernal/CBC)

"For a family of four, it's crazy to go to the grocery store, spend $700 and you're only getting two shopping carts of food," said Gebrit.

"For people who are low-income and don't have disposable income … how do we expect people to make it?"

That isn't an easy question to answer, said Au. Many who were already well-off made more money during the pandemic, while there were federal support programs for low-income people and those who lost their jobs.

But those in the middle "lost out," says Au. "[You] didn't make any money on the stock market, so you kind of got squeezed."

Inflation will "play horribly" for the lower and middle classes, says Au.

"If prices are going up and you're rich, whatever — big deal."

But for those who were out of work during the pandemic and had to stretch every dollar, it's a bigger problem.

"Suddenly, just when you're getting back into the workforce — just when you think you're going to get a little bit of a pay raise — all of a sudden your dollar doesn't go as far."

WATCH | Spending tips for the winter holiday season:

Shiu-Yik Au's financial advice ahead of the 2021 winter holidays

14 days ago
Duration 1:05
Shiu-Yik Au, an assistant professor of accounting and finance at the Asper School of Business at the University of Manitoba, shares spending tips as inflation rises and the urge to shop builds during the winter holidays. 1:05

Holiday shopping patterns may shift

In a survey conducted by NielsenIQ for Chartered Professional Accountants Canada, almost 60 per cent of respondents said COVID-19 isn't making a difference in how much they plan to spend over the holidays.

About 17 per cent of respondents to the survey, conducted online from Sept. 22 to Oct. 12, said they'll spend more, while 22 per cent said they'll spend less.

The survey also found 34 per cent of respondents said COVID-19 actually made it easier to save for the holidays, while 30 per cent said the pandemic made it harder to do so.

A margin of error cannot be calculated for online surveys, but for comparison purposes, a random sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of plus or minus two per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Devanshi Patel and her family own a grocery store in rural Manitoba. She says she's noticed how high food prices affect her customers. (Walther Bernal/CBC)

Devanshi Patel sees how hard it is for Manitobans to save while paying for basic needs.

"A lot of customers, they can't even afford basic needs like bread," said Patel, whose family owns Morris Super Variety, a grocery and liquor store in Morris, about 50 kilometres south of Winnipeg.

"We always look after them. Customers always complain that food is expensive, but what can we do? We always get it at the increased price."

Patel said some people in her life pulled back on recent Diwali celebrations due to COVID-19 restrictions and the rising cost of food. She expects people will do the same with upcoming winter holidays.

Patel said she started investing in stocks and mutual funds during the pandemic to make extra money, but sees how inflation is affecting her customers, family and friends.

"Rising costs in general concerns me," she said. "We're not making the same amount of money that we're spending."

'It's just bills, bills and bills' Manitoba families feel the pinch this holiday season

14 days ago
Duration 2:38
With a month until Christmas, it seems the rising cost of day-to-day living is taking the fun out of holiday shopping for some Manitobans. 2:38

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sam Samson

Journalist

Sam Samson is a multimedia journalist who has worked for CBC in Manitoba and Ontario as a reporter and associate producer. Before working for CBC, she studied journalism and communications in Winnipeg. You can get in touch on Twitter @CBCSamSamson or email samantha.samson@cbc.ca.

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