B.C. earthquakes and the risk of a 'big one' — a scientific explanation
Magnitude 4.8 earthquake on Tuesday not likely a precursor to something bigger
Thousands of people were shaken awake last night across the B.C. South Coast during a magnitude 4.8 earthquake that struck at 11:39 pm PT just 19 kilometres north-northeast of Victoria.
For many people, it was the strongest quake they had ever felt — one of the largest in the area in 14 years. And following it there are lots of questions about what this means for the "big one."
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This earthquake struck at a depth of 52 kilometres. Even though this earthquake is not classified as shallow or big, it was close enough to large populations, which is why so many people felt it.
Reports of the quake stretched as far north as the top of Vancouver Island, as far south as Seattle and as far east as the Fraser Valley. Fortunately, there were no reports of any major damage or injuries.
So far, no aftershocks have been reported. There is a slight chance small aftershocks may occur, but the likelihood will diminish over time.
Risk of the 'big one'
The South Coast of B.C. is situated in what's known as the Cascadia subduction zone, where ocean crust is trying to slide under the crust that North America sits on. It is likely this quake was located within the ocean plate that has moved underneath North America (and Victoria).
This is a different kind of earthquake from the type we would see during the "big one."
Along the boundary of these two plates, a section has become locked and no movement is happening. As a result, stress has been building up for centuries, and at some point, that stress will be relieved with a megathrust earthquake of magnitude 9.0 or higher.
There is about a one in 100,000 chance of a megathrust earthquake hitting on any given day, and this latest quake is not likely to have affected those odds.
However, earthquakes like the one experienced Tuesday night can occur more frequently than that. Even though the magnitudes will be smaller than that of a megathrust earthquake, they may happen closer to big cities.
Now is the perfect time to get an earthquake kit together and make an earthquake plan with your family.