Business

Federal Reserve set to leave rates alone but to hike later in year

The U.S. Federal Reserve is all but sure to leave interest rates unchanged this week, though steady economic growth and inflation pressures will likely keep the Fed on a path toward further rate hikes later this year.

Most analysts foresee 2 or 3 additional increases in the Fed's benchmark rate by year's end

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has said the U.S. central bank expects gradual increases in its key interest rate will be necessary. (Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press)

The U.S. Federal Reserve is all but sure to leave interest rates unchanged this week, though steady economic growth and inflation pressures will likely keep the Fed on a path toward further rate hikes later this year.

The central bank is meeting as its board is undergoing a makeover, with a raft of new appointees by President Donald Trump who appear generally supportive of the Fed's cautious approach to rates since the Great Recession ended.

Despite Trump's complaints during the presidential race that the Fed was aiding Democrats in keeping rates ultra-low under President Barack Obama, his choices for a chairman and for other slots on the Fed's board have been moderates rather than hard-core conservatives who would favour a faster tightening of credit.

The Fed does seem inclined to continue raising rates modestly this year to reflect a steadily improving economy and to keep inflation pressures under control. Economic growth remains solid, and most inflation gauges show annual price increases finally moving close to the Fed's two per cent target level. But few analysts expect any aggressive pickup in the pace of rate hikes. Most foresee either two or three additional increases in the Fed's benchmark rate by year's end, coming after an earlier hike in January.

As Jerome Powell, Trump's hand-picked new Fed chairman, said at a news conference after the central bank's most recent meeting in March, "We're trying to take the middle ground, and the committee continues to believe that the middle ground consists of further gradual increases in the federal-funds rate."

Bond investors are signalling that they expect a pickup in U.S. inflation, having bid up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note last week above three per cent before the yield settled just below that by week's end. A year ago, the 10-year yield was just 2.3 per cent.

Under Powell's predecessors, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, the Fed's board endured criticism from House Republicans over its decision to pursue a bond purchase program designed to lower long-term borrowing rates and to leave its key rate at a record low near zero for seven years. The critics charged that those policies would eventually produce destructive bubbles in the prices of stocks and other assets and, eventually, undesirably high inflation.

But so far, Trump's reshaping of the Fed's board reflects a generally status quo approach.

"Trump's criticisms during the campaign have not been borne out by his decisions on who to put on the Fed," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "I don't think this new Fed views the extraordinary steps the central bank took during the crisis as out of bounds."

Since the Fed began raising rates in December 2015, the pace has been modest and gradual: One quarter-point rate increase in 2015, one in 2016, three in 2017 and one so far this year. Even now, the Fed's benchmark short-term rate, which influences consumer and business loan rates throughout the economy, remains in a low range of 1.5 to 1.75 per cent.

When the Fed announced its most recent rate hike last month, it forecast that it would raise rates twice more this year. Powell, a Republican who was originally nominated to the Fed's board by President Barack Obama, has so far signalled an approach to rate hikes that appears similar to the cautious one Yellen pursued.

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