Arts·Oscars Predictions

Who will win at the 2023 Oscars? Here are our predictions

The 95th Academy Award nominations are out. From Banshees of Inisherin to TÁR to Everywhere Everywhere All At Once, we have the best bets for the winners.

Ace your office pool with these picks for the 95th Academy Award winners

A still frame from the film Everything Everywhere All at Once. Stephanie Hsu, Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan looking alarmed at something off camera.
From left: Stephanie Hsu, Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Along with their co-star Jamie Lee Curtis, they all have excellent shots at Oscar nominations. (A24)

The nominations for the 95th Academy Awards are here, and our resident Oscar nerd (and CBC Arts producer) Peter Knegt has some thoughts on who is going to win … and who shouldn't have been snubbed.

It's definitely been a wild ride of a season leading up to this, as we've been charting in regular updates to these predictions and through Knegt's new monthly column My Favourite Season. And there will surely be even more ups and downs leading up to the big show, so keeping checking back for updates as to how things might play out.

Best Picture

The nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, TÁR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

What should've been here:

I would have personally subbed out Avatar for Aftersun (or honestly, 25 other films), but overall this is a pretty solid list by Academy standards. (I was most worried about a snub for Women Talking here, but that not happening alone is enough to satisfy me.)

What's gonna win?

With 11 nominations in total for Everything Everywhere All At Once, safe money is on it to win the biggest prize of the night.

Best Director

The nominees:

The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh), Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg), TÁR (Todd Field), Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

Who should've been here:

Sarah Polley, Charlotte Wells and Gina Price-Blythewood all missed out for their extraordinary work in Women Talking, Afterun and The Woman King, respectively. After two straight years of a female filmmaker winning in this category, it's back to the boys club.

Who's gonna win?

Spielberg is going to be tough to beat, and despite winning two Oscars already in this category, it feels overdue given his GOAT status and the fact that it's been nearly a quarter-century since his last win. But the Daniels are definitely the spoiler given how much the Academy loved Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Best Actress

The nominees:

Cate Blanchett (TÁR), Ana deArmas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Who should've been here:

In one of the most absolutely bonkers twists in Oscars herstory (and truly I'm not exaggerating), Andrea Riseborough's last minute celebrity-fueled campaign … worked. Oscar nerds will be talking about this for years and years, as they should also talk about the fact that it helped result (along with the inclusion of Ana deArmas for a critically reviled film) in the absolutely ridiculous snubbing of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler for The Woman King and Till, respectively. They had both been nominated for basically every precursor. 

Who's gonna win?

Blanchett or Yeoh, flip a coin for this battle of the legends. 

Best Actor

Final predictions:

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Who should've been here:

I personally have very little to complain about with this five, though Jeremy Pope's work in The Inspection was definitely worthy of inclusion.

Who's gonna win?

Not a previous winner! This category is all first-time nominees for the first time in 88 years (!). It's also one of the more competitive best actor races in recent memory, with Butler, Farrell and Fraser all having excellent shots at the win.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: 

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Who should've been here:

Love this lineup, but would have loved to see Dolly De Leon make it in, especially given voters seemed to love Triangle of Sadness overall. Also was rooting for Nina Hoss (TÁR), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) and all of the actresses from Women Talking.

Who's gonna win?

Bassett's looking very strong to win her first Oscar here, with Condon having an outside chance to surprise.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees:

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Who should've been here:

Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) or Mark Rylance (Bones and All) would have been worthy nominees, but this is a pretty stellar lineup as is.

Who's gonna win?

Quan has pretty unbeatable momentum, winning every single award he's been nominated for leading up to this. It would be one of the most shocking upsets in recent memory if he loses. 

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees:

The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh), Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg), TÁR (Todd Field), Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

Who should've been here:

I was really hoping Park Chan-wook and Seo-kyeong Jeong (Decision To Leave) or Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) could sneak in.

Who's gonna win?

This seems like a great place (and sadly perhaps the only place?) to reward The Banshees of Inisherin, but Everything Everywhere All At Once is probably the favourite.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front (Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson, Edward Berger), Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson), Living (Kazuo Ishiguro), Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie),Women Talking (Sarah Polley)

Who should've been here:

Samuel D. Hunter's script for The Whale was one of the morning's more surprising snubs, but it was a welcome one for me, so no notes!

Who's gonna win? 

For many months there, Sarah Polley looked like she would easily win in this category for Women Talking, which would make her the first Canadian woman to ever win a screenwriting Oscar. But All Quiet On The Western Front feels like a lot more of a threat than we had originally thought, given how much the Academy loved it over all. My money's still on Polley, though.

Best International Feature

The nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany), Argentina, 1985 (Argentina),Close (Belgium), EO (Poland), The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

What should've been here:

South Korea's entry Decision To Leave absolutely should have been here, and also should have won. Also sad for Pakistan's wonderful Joyland and France's stunning Saint Omer.

Who's gonna win?

There's been a string of high-profile winners in this category that also did very well elsewhere (2019's Parasite, 2020's Another Round and 2021's Drive My Car), and all signs point to Germany's All Quiet On The Western Front being this year's version of that. (Interestingly, it's based on the same 1929 novel that was adapted into a 1930 American film that won best picture at the 3rd Academy Awards.)

Best Animated Feature

The nominees:

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (Netflix), Marcel The Shell With Shoes On (A24), Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks), The Sea Beast (Netflix), Turning Red (Pixar/Disney)

What should've been here:

This is a pretty incredible quintet of movies, though Henry Selick's Wendell & Wild was very worthy as well.

Who's gonna win?

Disney and Pixar have mostly dominated this category throughout its two decades of existence (though they notably did not win the first two years, with Dreamworks' Shrek taking the first award in 2002 and Japanese animation master Hayao Miyazaki's Spirited Away following it). Of the past 10 winners, only 2018's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was not a Disney or Pixar property. This year looks to be another exception to the rule: Guillermo Del Toro's re-imagining of a beloved Disney property (except on Netflix this time), Pinocchio, is almost certainly winning this.

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees:

All That Breathes (Shaunak Sen), All The Beauty and the Bloodshed (Laura Poitras), A House Made of Splinters (Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström), Fire of Love (Sara Dosa), Navalny (Daniel Roher)

What should've been here:

Margaret Brown's Descendant, Brett Morgen's Moonage Daydream and David Siev's Bad Axe all would have been great nominees.

Who's gonna win?

All The Beauty and the Bloodshed (an astounding portrait of Nan Goldin's work as an artist and activist) has the most support from critics (and won the Venice Film Festival's top prize, only the second time a documentary has ever done that). But given the state of the world, Nalvany (which documents the heroic efforts of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny to stop Vladimir Putin) would obviously make for a very powerful moment if it wins. 

Best Cinematography

The nominees:

All Quiet On The Western Front (James Friend), Bardo (Darius Khondji), Empire of Light (Roger Deakins), Elvis (Mandy Walker), TÁR (Florian Hoffmeister)

Who should've been here:

Claudio Miranda was far and away a favourite not only to be nominated here for his work in Top Gun: Maverick, but to win (and deservedly so).

Who's gonna win?

With Miranda's snub, this category now has no clear favourite — though given their overall love for it, my current guess would be James Friend ends up taking this for All Quiet On The Western Front.

Best Film Editing

The nominees:

The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel EG Nielsen), Elvis (Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa), Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers), TÁR (Monika Willi), Top Gun: Maverick (Chris Lebenzon and Eddie Hamilton)

Who should've been here:

It was a long shot, but Blair McClendon's editing work on Aftersun was incredible.

Who's gonna win?

This category tends to lean toward the most action-packed best picture nominee for its winner (Dune, Dunkirk, Ford v. Ferrari and Mad Max: Fury Road are all recent winners), suggesting it's likely a battle of the year's two most unquestionable success stories: Top Gun: Maverick and Everything Everywhere All at Once. Everything Everywhere is a pretty astounding achievement in editing, seamlessly weaving together countless narratives and multiverses to extraordinary emotional effect. I'm optimistic Oscar voters will feel the same, even if the editing involved in the high-octane air sequences of Top Gun is showier.

Best Original Score

The nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann), Babylon (Justin Hurwitz), The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell), Everything Everywhere All At Once (Son Lux),The Fabelmans (John Williams)

Who should've been here:

Hildur Guðnadóttir's score for Women Talking was my favourite of the year, and it's very disappointing it was not rewarded here.

Who's gonna win?

This is 90-year-old John Williams' 53rd nomination (take that, Meryl!), making him the second-most nominated person in history after Walt Disney. He has announced he is retiring from film scoring after next year, so this would be quite the sendoff. However, he does already have five wins and his Fabelmans score isn't… especially memorable (especially when you know this is the man who also scored Star Wars, Jaws and Jurassic Park, the latter of which he somehow didn't even get nominated for). So I'm guessing this is Golden Globe winner Justin Hurwitz's to lose for Babylon.

Best Original Song

The nominees:

"Applause" (Tell It Like a Woman), "Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick), "Lift Me Up" (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), "Naatu Naatu" (RRR), "This is a Life" (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Who should've been here:

I am not a fan of White Noise, but LCD Soundsystem's "new body rhumba" playing over its finale sequence was by far the best thing about it. And while it didn't even make the shortlist, Billie Eilish and Finneas's "Nobody Like U" from Turning Red should have been here (over Diane Warren, frankly).

Who's gonna win?

One of the most fascinating races this year, best original song includes giant pop stars Rihanna and Lady Gaga, the legendary David Byrne and 14-time nominee Diane Warren (who has lost every time, although she was given an honourary Oscar at the Academy's Governor Awards). And they are all going to lose to the wildly deserving "Naatu Naatu" from Indian action epic RRR.

Best Production Design

The nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck and Milena Koubkova), Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole), Babylon (Florencia Martin), Elvis (Catherine Martin), The Fabelmans (Rick Carter and Karen O'Hara)

Who should've been here:

Rick Heinrichs' work on Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and Jason Kisvarday's on Everything Everywhere All At Once were both extraordinary.

Who's gonna win?

If there's anything Babylon is going to win, it's probably this (and it deserves it). But the original Avatar won in this category, so watch out for the sequels. 

Best Costume Design

The nominees:

Babylon (Mary Zophres), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter), Elvis (Catherine Martin), Everything Everywhere All At Once (Shirley Kurata), Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris (Jenny Beavan)

Who should've been here:

Monika Buttinger's costumes for Austrian import Corsage were stunning.

Who's gonna win?

Babylon has a shot here too, but this feels like a race between two legends: Catherine Martin (who is the most-awarded Australian in Oscar history, winning four awards for previous collaborations with her husband Baz Luhrmann) and Ruth E. Carter (who won for designing the original Black Panther, making her the first Black designer to ever do so).

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front (Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová), The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend and Joel Harlow), Elvis (Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti), The Whale (Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley)

Who should've been here:

The makeup in David Cronenberg's Crimes of the Future was worthy of winning here.

Who's gonna win?

Both Elvis and The Whale have a lot of makeup and hairstyling, and often "the most" is considered "the best" in this category. But it also often aligns with whatever film wins another big prize, so whoever wins best actor might also suggest the winner here.

Best Sound

The nominees:

All Quiet On The Western Front (Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte), Avatar: The Way of Water (Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges), The Batman (Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson), Elvis (David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller),Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor)

Who should've been here:

This should have been Everything Everywhere All At Once's 12th nomination, as far as I'm concerned.

Who's gonna win?

This is definitely the Top Gun: Maverick team's to lose.

Best Visual Effects

The nominees:

All Quiet On The Western Front (Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar), Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett), The Batman (Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick), Top Gun: Maverick (Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher)

Who should've been here:

Nope would have been an inspired and deserved nomination here (and several other places, for that matter).

Who's gonna win?

Films directed by James Cameron have won in this category five times (Aliens, The Abyss, Terminator 2: Judgement Day, Titanic and Avatar), more than any other filmmaker. Expect that streak to be extended here.

Check back with updated predictions as we make our way to the 95th Academy Awards on March 12, 2023.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Peter Knegt (he/him) has worked for CBC Arts since 2016, writing the LGBTQ-culture column Queeries (winner of the 2019 Digital Publishing Award for best digital column in Canada and nominated again this year) and hosting the video interview series Here & Queer. He's also spearheaded the launch and production of series Canada's a Drag, variety special Queer Pride Inside, and interactive projects Superqueeroes and The 2010s: The Decade Canadian Artists Stopped Saying Sorry. Collectively, these projects have won Knegt four Canadian Screen Awards. Beyond CBC, Knegt is also the filmmaker of numerous short films, the author of the book About Canada: Queer Rights and the host of the monthly film series Queer Cinema Club at Toronto's Paradise Theatre. You can follow him on Instagram and Twitter with the same obvious handle: @peterknegt.

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