McCain has the lead in U.S. election race: poll

Last Updated: Monday, September 8, 2008 | 12:51 PM ET

CBC News

U.S. presidential hopeful John McCain has 50 per cent of support among registered voters, a new poll suggests. (Stephan Savoia/Associated Press)

Republican nominee John McCain has taken the lead from his Democratic party counterpart, Barack Obama, in the U.S. presidential race, according to a new poll by USA Today and Gallup.

The poll puts McCain ahead with 50 per cent of support among registered voters, compared with 46 per cent for Obama. It's the Republicans' biggest advantage since January, and it gives McCain a lead that exceeds the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus three percentage points.

The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, was conducted Friday to Sunday, after the Republican National Convention in Minnesota.

The convention appears to have given McCain a boost. A USA Today poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul showed McCain lagging by seven percentage points.

Analysts say the convention helped McCain, but so did the Arizona senator's decision to choose running mate Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska.

The addition of Palin to the Republican ticket prompted 29 per cent of the voters surveyed to say they were more likely to vote for McCain. Twenty-one per cent say it made them less likely.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention, and at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia told USA Today.

"He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."

Lead may not last

But Sabato, who has studied the impact of political conventions since 1960, warned that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time.

"You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he said. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

The poll also shows that McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, considered a top U.S. election issue. Before the Republican convention, Obama was favoured by 19 percentage points, but now he's favoured by three.

McCain's ties to U.S. President George W. Bush remain a vulnerability, the poll shows. Of those surveyed, 63 per cent said they are concerned McCain would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33 per cent.