Clinton losing lead over Obama on eve of Super Tuesday: polls

Last Updated: Monday, February 4, 2008 | 12:32 PM ET

CBC News

Hillary Clinton is hoping the results of the Super Bowl will presage the outcome of U.S. primary voting on Super Tuesday — but a slew of recent polls suggest the New York senator is losing momentum in the run for the presidency.

Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Hillary Clinton conducts a roundtable discussion at the Yale Child Study Center in New Haven, Conn., on Monday.
(Fred Beckham/Associated Press)

On Sunday, Clinton saw her New York Giants defeat the New England Patriots, the team favoured by Illinois Senator Barack Obama, her rival in the race for the Democratic party's presidential nod.

But three national polls taken over the weekend suggest her once-dominant lead over Obama is fading in the run-up to Super Tuesday, in which 22 states will choose Democratic delegates representing about 40 per cent of the total available.

The three polls suggested Clinton and Obama were in a dead heat. 

A Washington Post-ABC News survey of voters ending Friday had Clinton with 47 per cent support and Obama at 44 per cent; a USA Today-Gallup poll ending Saturday suggested a 45-44 margin; and a CNN poll ending Sunday suggested Obama had the national edge, at 49 per cent to 46 per cent. All results are within the polls' margins of error, so the leads are considered statistically insignificant.

"The thing that's significant about those figures is that Obama, in almost every state, is gaining ground on Clinton day by day," CBC's Henry Champ said from Washington.

"The real question is: Is there enough time left for him to score points and continue this sort of momentum and move toward victory?"

Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Barack Obama receives a hug from Senator Ted Kennedy, left, during a rally at the Meadowlands arena in East Rutherford, N.J., on Monday.
(Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press)

Obama aired ads during Sunday's Super Bowl in television markets serving 24 states that are in play on Super Tuesday and beyond.

The 30-second ads used images of crowds of supporters, despair in Iraq and Hurricane Katrina's destruction.

"We want an end to this war and we want diplomacy and peace," Obama says in a voice-over from a speech in Austin, Texas. "Not only can we save the environment, we can create jobs and opportunity. We're tired of fear; we're tired of division. We want something new."

Clinton spent the weekend and Monday campaigning across the U.S., with stops in Minnesota, St. Louis, Connecticut and New York City, among others. Obama planned stops on Monday in Boston, Connecticut and New Jersey, where 127 Democratic delegates are at stake.

"The one thing that's in [Obama's] favour is that the Democrats do their state primaries proportionally, which means that if you lose 51 to 49, you get very nearly the same number delegates," Champ said.

"Most people now say Super Tuesday will be an overall victory for Clinton, but not nearly enough to defeat Obama."

McCain could lock up Republican nomination

For the Republicans, who choose delegates in 21 states on Tuesday, Arizona Senator John McCain will have a chance to leverage his recent victories in Florida and South Carolina to lock up the nomination.

The three weekend polls suggest McCain is ahead of chief rival Mitt Romney by an average of 45 to 26 per cent of voters.

"It does seem that McCain is pulling away; it does seem he's on his way to victory," Champ said.

"He probably won't get quite enough delegates to be declared the champion."

McCain was campaigning Monday in Boston, former Massachusetts governor Romney's home turf, while Romney was on the hustings in Atlanta and Nashville.