Drying Forecast..Risk of Afternoon T-storms Though...June 12th

  • After a good round of heavy rain this morning, conditions have eased to showers. In fact we may even see some sunny breaks as we head into the late afternoon
  • But the airmass actually becomes more unstable as we head into the afternoon, giving way to the risk of thunderstorms through to the evening. The greatest risk will be inland from YVR but the potential is there right across the south coast
  • Temperatures are a few degrees below seasonal today as well as we get into the core of the upper level low that continues to spin, but sink south across the region. This is what continues to bring heavy rain to Chicotin this afternoon.. and is also what is bringing the t-storms risk to Vancouver
  • For tomorrow, the low will continue to track inland just bringing a few lingering showers tomorrow & Friday.. but sunny breaks as well
  • The low should get kicked out by the weekend for a sunny and warm outlook

Dangerous Weather Outbreak Tonight..'Wall of Wind' Possible for Great Lakes
  • Millions of people from the Great Lakes to the east coast will be subject to a large outbreak of severe weather tonight. Most weather blogs have been warning of this event since Monday... and we did mention in the weather last night that today would be a big day
  • A powerful low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes area will create an organized complex of thunderstorms, possibly becoming a "derecho" event that brings widespread damaging straight-line winds to a large swath. A few strong tornadoes are also possible, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued their highest level of alert "High Risk" for Chicago and northern Indiana. 
  • This is the first "High Risk" forecast SPC has put out in 2013. These don't happen very often where there is such a high confidence in a widespread damaging event..
  • A tornado watch has already been issued for a large area of MN, WI & IL
  • Looks like the storms will start getting organized around this afternoon and we should have a good idea about what exactly the thunderstorm line will do around 5 pm PT for the Illinois region
  • http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-12/storms-capable-of-producing-derecho-possible-in-midwest-today.html

Canadian Impact
  • At this point it looksl ike the line/derecho makes it's way into Southern Ontario by ~11 pm PT at the earliest. I will keep us posted through the day as to the timing since this things hasn't actually formed yet
  • Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for this event for heavy rain overnight along with the thunderstorms..warnings will likely be upgraded as the system develops

What Exactly is a 'Derecho?'
  • Pronounced  de-reh-choh...this is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms produce wind damage over a large swath of land.
  • The wind is sustained and generally exceeding hurricane-force..

Fort McMurray Flooding..T-storms today
  • Already over 100 mm of rain has fallen this June.. well over the monthly average of 75 mm.. and more rain to come today with thunderstorms
  • Storms are already firing up in northern AB early this afternoon and they bring the potential high and very localized rainfall totals. At least 5-10 mm though as an approaching low pressure system tracks north from BC
  • Environment Canada issued a special weather statement for the region saying the rain "has the potential to worsen an already sensitive situation"

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Vancouver Weather











Chance of showers



Chance of showers