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THE END: PRINT

One of the biggest threats to print is the sheer volume and variety of writing that can be found online. By starting a 'blog' or web journal, anyone can became a writer and publish their work for others to see at no cost. Markos Moulitsas is a blogger for Daily Kos, a webblog that analyzes U.S. political events from a left wing perspective. "I never would have had this kind of platform in a traditional world. I didn't have money, connections, to become some kind of pundit." Daily Kos is one of the top five blogs in the world and around election time attracts millions of readers a day - more than many traditional media outlets.

"Who in their right mind would give a stay-at-home mom the audience that I have crafted for myself?" wonders Heather B. Armstrong. She was dooced - or fired - from her job as a web designer because she wrote about her work and office-mates on her blog, Dooce.com. And now her blog makes enough money from advertising to support her family. "I do think it's opening up more voices and opportunities for people who wouldn't be published otherwise."

While Laura Swisher, comedian/blogger, isn't sure that bloggers will replace traditional media, she says they've made it more accountable . "I know bloggers have made a difference. Now, if there are errors in journalism, the blogosphere calls them out on it."

Although bloggers are making an impact Jon Landman, deputy managing editor of the New York Times, believes that it doesn't mean the end of reporters. "Amateur journalism and professional journalism are not the same thing any more than amateur musicianship is the same as the real thing."

Whatever the effect of blogs on the printed word, the encyclopedia is definitely under siege from the digital world.  Wikipedia, a free online reference tool, is available in more than one hundred languages and has over one million English articles. "My goal is to give a free encyclopedia to every person on the planet and that does make it a little hard to sell them for $1500," says Jimmy Wales, the founder.

Wikipedia is written collaboratively by over thirteen thousand volunteer contributors.  Craig Newmark, the founder of Craigslist: "Wikipedia is a really big deal. It's the history of our times for the future. In the past, victors wrote the history books and sometimes they lied, now that's over."

But errors, in some cases, serious ones, have been discovered on the site. "I heard that some dramatic percentage of wikipedia's info is false," says media consultant Lisa Greer, "that kind of thing is going to start coming out. Don't believe everybody you hear."

There is hope for traditional media outlets but it's clear they have to adapt - and the New York Times is leading the way. More people read the New York Times online than buy the print version and that is bringing the 'paper' new audiences. "Our publisher has said pretty consistently that we are platform agnostic.  That he doesn't care on what platform readers get the New York Times information as long as they get it - and we will figure out a way to make a business out of that," says Rich Meislin, the assistant managing editor of the New York Times online.

To keep online readers interested the New York Times has expanded into new formats: blogs, discussion forums, photography, video and podcasting. "The central characteristic of the new media environment is that people are able to get whatever they want, in whatever form they want it, whenever they want it and that's what we're adjusting to," explains Jon Landman, the deputy managing editor.

There's no doubt that the traditional media will need to find new ways to make money. Most newspapers still depend on advertising dollars, a good portion of which come from their classified ads.  But lately the free online classified site, Craigslist, has taken a bite out of their revenue. "Newspapers are definitely nervous. Circulation is shrinking, classifieds are going Craigslist and direct consumer connections with e-bay," says David Schatsky from Jupiter Research.

Advertisers are spending more of their dollars online. It's estimated that by 2007 more will be spent on online advertising than magazine advertising in the U.S.

Deborah Rosser, VP and Publisher of Rogers Consumer Publishing believes that her company is ready for the challenge. "As long as we remain focused on what people want and consumer behaviour then there is a future for us as content providers. We have to be smart, understand our customer base and respond to it. " "It's a time of change but not a time of calamity," says Jon Landman, " it's a time for online companies to experiment and figure out how to embrace online media and get at where the audiences are going to."

What about those libraries filled with stacks and stacks on old-fashioned books? Daniel Clancy, engineering director of the Google Book Search is one of the people looking to the future, "there is a vast amount of information not accessible online and part of our mission is to make that accessible."

Google Book Search is an ambitious project that will make the world's collection of books available online and accessible for all.  While there's no doubt that digital books will be easier to store and to search, but it's controversial idea.  "I'm very concerned that as a culture we're willing to trade control and ownership of our culture to a corporation simply for the ability to make simple searches," explains Bob Stein, the director at the Institute for the Future of the Book.

Book publishers, who say they own exclusive copyright to the material, are angry. The Association of American Publishers is now suing Google for scanning books without permission. "Reasonable people can sometimes disagree about interpretation of fair use. We also disagree about interpretation of copyright law," says Daniel Clancy.

Brewster Kahle, from the Open Content Alliance, doesn't understand what publishers are complaining about. They're working with Microsoft and Yahoo!, also, to digitize all the world's books: "If we were able to take our great libraries, digitize one million or ten million volumes, then put in an internet connection, a printer, a binder and a cutter - then any place, a school, museum, old folks home, hospital - any of those will be a million book library. Wouldn't that be great?"

Steve Osgoode, the director of online marketing at HarperCollins Canada, believes that within the next decade people will be more comfortable reading online. "The reality is the generation that's behind us, these are going to be people who have grown up using screens and that is going to be the tipping point for this technology." He's introducing e-books that can be read on a palm pilot or PDA.

But who really wants to read a novel on a screen? Soon new electronic devices like the Sony Reader will be available. They use new e-ink technologies that mimic the natural process of reading. These new books hold thousands of titles and can be taken anywhere.

But Bill Kennedy, web editor at Coach House Books says that just changing the device is the wrong approach. "What could you do if you had a screen this big? What kind of writing would you make? That's a better question." "We're not going to see a transition until we see born digital books, books that include links to other books, have hypertext, audio and video in them. You'll subscribe to books in the future because they'll be changing over time," agrees Bob Stein.

Cory Doctorow, co-editor at BoingBoing, a popular website/blog and science fiction author, doesn't have a problem releasing his books electronically. "For most authors the biggest problem isn't piracy, it's obscurity.  Of all the people who don't buy my books, it isn't because they got free electronic copies, it's because they never heard of it."

But will a device ever replace the feeling of sinking into a hammock with a good paperback? "A book, you don't need to plug it in, it's very convenient. Also people are very comfortable with it," says best-selling Canadian author Margaret Atwood. She believes that the printed book is here to stay, "they will. Trust me on this."

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