Skeptical public makes polling tougher
Last Updated: Wednesday, November 30, 2005 | 2:50 PM ET
CBC News
Bruce Cameron, with Cameron Strategy, says fewer people are responding to public opinion polls, making it more difficult to conduct surveys.
"The entire industry is very much aware that response rates have been falling consistently over the past five to six years," said Cameron.
"And when response rates fall dramatically below 10 per cent, you have to examine the demographics of the poll very carefully and make sure that the data is weighted to reflect the right gender mix, the right age mix, even within the different regions.
"So it becomes even more important than ever to statistically examine the data and weight it accordingly."
Cameron says online surveys are becoming a more popular way of gathering information, and will likely start playing a bigger role in campaigns.
The lower response rate comes at a time when voters are increasingly wary of poll results.
Harold Jansen, a professor of political science at the University of Lethbridge, says that while polls are generally accurate – taking into consideration the margin of error – they don't capture changes of heart.
Voters, especially in close races, can waffle and that leads to variation in polling results, he said.
"I think a degree of skepticism is always a good idea whenever you hear poll results being reported," said Jansen. "Polling companies should be asking how intensely committed people are to the party, how strongly committed they are to their particular vote choice at the time."
Jansen said it's also important not to put undecided voters who may be leaning toward one party with those who have definitely made their choice.
He added it's also important to see the questions, not just the answers.
