"The whole of Italy will be supporting Chelsea", Carlo Ancelotti said before the first Champions League game against Jose Mourinho's Inter Milan two weeks ago.

That might indeed have been the case - the Portuguese coach is not exactly the most-loved manager in Serie A. But Ancelotti's confident statement also begged another interesting question: what about the whole of England?

Chelsea is probably no longer the widely despised moneybags team of yesterday in their home country but they are still far from being universally liked.

Perhaps we can conclude that both teams, while respected abroad, wouldn't be favourites in domestic popularity contests. One thing is for certain, however: next Tuesday night, the whole of Germany will be in the Blue corner, not with the Nerazzurri.

Michael Ballack's involvement with the Londoners can only partially explain that preference. The real reason is to be found in the statistics department of UEFA headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland.

Champions League spots hang in the balance

Unbeknownst to most football fans, a titanic struggle between two of Europe's top leagues is reaching its final and decisive stage in the coming weeks: the German Bundesliga and Italy's Serie A are going head to head in the fight for the fourth Champions League spot.

UEFA assigns the starting places in European competitions based on average results over a five-year period. Due to disappointing performances  - Germany hasn't had a club in a Champions League final since 2002 - the Bundesliga has been languishing in fourth place behind Spain, England and Italy in the coefficient table since 2003.

Only the top three leagues get four starters in the Champions League. But Serie A's fall from grace and German football's resurgence has brought the two countries very closely together in the stats table. After this week's good results for the German teams and the elimination of both Milan and Fiorentina, Italy are only ahead by 1.4 points. Back in December, the gap was still double, 2.8 points.

Germany still have five teams in the running - Bayern, Stuttgart (both in the Champions League) and Bremen, Wolfsburg and Hamburg (all Europa League) - whereas Italy are left with only Inter and Juve, who take on Fulham at Craven Cottage next week.

Defeats for those two teams in England would naturally be much appreciated in Germany. There is a realistic chance that the Bundesliga can overtake their southern rivals by the time the season is over and have four teams (three guaranteed starters plus one at the final qualification stage) involved in Europe's top competition from 2011-12, whereas the Italians would have to make do with two plus one.

This change wouldn't just have symbolic meaning. More teams in the Champions League equals more TV revenue, which equals more stars in the league. The flight of top talent from Serie A would be exacerbated, with the Bundesliga becoming a more attractive (and financially lucrative) league for international stars.

This all sounds a tad hypothetical, one could argue. But in many ways, the paradigm shift of power has already happened.

More star players going to Germany, than Italy

Only Inter and to a lesser extent AC Milan can still compete with Bayern Munich's spending power. One level below, where Stuttgart, Hamburg and Bremen are, the Italian middle-class teams (Palermo, Napoli, Lazio, Sampdoria, Fiorentina) can no longer afford to sign the calibre of player  - Alex Hleb, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Claudio Pizarro - who would have chosen Serie A as a matter of course ten years ago.

Since results follow the money in football, Germany's good showing - especially in the Europa League - is no coincidence. As things stand before the games next week, the Bundesliga has, on average, actually had the best results of all leagues this season so far.

Even if Italy does manage to hold on to their third spot in the UEFA table for 2011-12, they are destined to lose it in the following year because their excellent 2005-06 results will no longer be taken into equation.

Maybe those who love Italian football should hope that this inevitable set-back will happen rather sooner than later. Losing the fourth spot was, in hindsight, a healthy shock to the system. It forced the Bundesliga to take stock, identify the mistakes and work hard to set them right.