The Redeem Team will win gold
Friday, August 8, 2008 | 06:49 PM ET
Picking the U.S. to win the Olympic men's basketball tournament is like picking Google to beat out Yahoo or choosing the iPod over the Zune.
This is a team with A-list stars such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Paul. We expect the U.S. to win. They expect to win. If you pick the U.S. and you're right, everyone says 'No kidding.' But if you're wrong, then ho-boy, are you a myopic fool. Or so the thinking goes.
That's OK, because for the last few years I've been down on the US team; back when I was blogging solo I picked Spain to win the world championships in 2006 and, in a less official prediction, I did win a bet with a co-worker here at CBC that Argentina would take the gold in Athens.
This wasn't because I'm a contrarian; Argentina in '04 and Spain in '06 were some mighty good teams.
There are also a number of reasons why the U.S. will probably never be "prohibitive" favourites to win an Olympic tournament again.
This includes the limited time the team has to practise and play together as compared to its opponents, the slightly different FIBA rules, particularly the one that allows forms of goaltending not allowed in the NBA and the generally inconsistent officiating of FIBA basketball, which makes it hard for players to get into rhythm and tends to favour teams that can make free throws (unlike, say, U.S. centre Dwight Howard).
And looking at the make-up of this particular team, it's easy to see flaws. Howard, Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer are the U.S.'s only big men, and none of them are particularly noteworthy as defenders. The U.S. strategy of running at shooters and trapping leaves them susceptible to crisp ball movement, exactly the hallmark of teams like Greece, Spain and Croatia.
And if things don't go well on offence, the players occasionally revert to old habits, where each offensive possession becomes a chance for one player to personally win the game. It's how being down seven points can turn into double-digit deficits, and we've seen that movie before.
But having said all of that, my gut is telling me the U.S. is going to win it all this year.
Part of the reason is I have less confidence in the opposition.
Take Argentina; since winning the gold in Athens, this team just hasn't been the same. Manu Ginobili is limping. Point guard Pepe Sanchez is gone, as is their old coach. The new guys are a little green, the old guys are a little, well, old.
Russia, the team that won the European qualifying tournament in 2007, is a bit of a wild-card, but like Argentina, they are banged up heading into the tournament and are thin up front. Germany has Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Kaman up front, but has under whelming guard play. And if Lithuania's warm-up game against the U.S. is any indication, star point guard Sarunas Jasikevicius may be another year older but he's about a decade slower.
Even the Spanish team, who many think should be co-favourites, has their issues. Heart and soul Jorge Garbajosa was hobbled at last year's qualifying tournament and probably won't have the same jump he did two years ago. They have depth at the guard position with Jose Calderon, Juan Carlos Navarro, Rudy Fernandez, Raul Lopez and Ricky Rubio, but they are also small there. They are also a little thin on big men after the Gasol brothers, meaning they won't be able to take advantage of the U.S.'s big weakness.
Greece is hard to pick apart; they are a genuinely scary team with a potent team-oriented offensive capable of scoring inside and out. But they will have lost the element of surprise like when they beat the U.S. in 2006.
Besides talent, my other reason for picking the U.S. is the favourable schedule. The Americans are pared in a group with both Spain and Greece, the two teams most likely to contend with them for the gold. This means is that they'll get to size up both teams before having to play them, which is important, since surprise has played a big role in many of the U.S.'s previous losses.
It also means that even if they lose a game during the round robin, they would still end up with the second seed in the group and favourable matchups in the quarter- and semifinals. Because of the format, the first and third seeded teams would be in the same bracket and would meet in the other semifinal.
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block for the U.S. would be if a surprise team like Croatia (who are similar to Greece but less experienced) shoots the lights out in the quarterfinals and sends them home early. Otherwise, I think the so-called Redeem Team will finally earn their name.
Predicted finish: USA (Gold), Greece (Silver), Spain (Bronze)
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About the Author
Paul Jay has been writing about basketball for seven years, working as a basketball columnist for Rogers Sportsnet and writing for CBC Sports, Raptors Insider, Dose and appearing on air with Sportsnet and Raptors TV. In his 12 years in journalism, Paul has written features for some of the best publications in the country, including the Globe and Mail, the Ottawa Citizen, Saturday Night, Canadian Lawyer and This magazine. He first joined CBC.ca during the 2004 Athens Olympics and currently writes online for CBCNews.ca as a technology and science writer.
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Comments
B-Rod
NL
I think you're right about the americans winning gold, but I think Spain will finish second, and Greece third. Spain has a lot of NBA talent and their point guard of the future, Rubio, is said to have superstar potential (almost a Lebron of Kobe type impact) Plus they have Pau and Marc Gasol, Garbojosa, Calderon, Rodriguez, Fernandez. etc. pretty much Good NBA talent at every position. Oh and they play together every year too.
Posted August 11, 2008 03:24 PM