Who has playoff edge - Raptors or Magic?
Friday, April 18, 2008 | 04:16 PM ET
The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic played three times this season, but you could make the case that each of these games deserves an asterisk next to it.
The first game, a 105 to 96 win for Orlando, was in November, before Orlando traded for Mo Evans and moved him into the starting lineup ahead of Keith Bogans, and before Jamario Moon went from training camp feel-good story to the role of starting small forward.
The second game, a 127-110 victory for Toronto, happened when Raptors point guard TJ Ford was out with an injury and Jose Calderon had full control of the team. Jose's backup, Juan Dixon - Calderon's backup in that game, has also since been traded to the Detroit Pistons for a large man named Primoz who seems very animated but contributes little.
The third game, a 102 to 87 blowout win for Orlando, tells us even less, since Chris Bosh missed the game for Toronto.
Playoffs a different season
Way back in the day, Pat Riley once riled up a whole bunch of people - particularly ticket scalpers - when he said "the regular season is meaningless," or words to that effect. What Riley was referring to, however, wasn't the 82 games the fans have endured/enjoyed, but rather that when trying to predict who between two teams might win a playoff series, the regular-season games weren't likely to provide much of an indicator.
The Raptors-Magic season series is exhibit A for that theory this year. Still, they're all we've got. So, what, if anything can we glean from them?
Orlando can't guard Chris Bosh: Here's all you need to know about Chris Bosh's two games against Orlando: he took 11 free throws in one game and 14 in another. (Incidentally, he made all 25.) Bosh is too quick for Howard, and too aggressive for Rashard Lewis.
Unfortunately for Toronto ...
Toronto can't guard Dwight Howard: Rasho Nesterovic comes the closest to containing Howard one-on-one, but Howard scores most of his baskets not as part of some isolation play in the post, but from dunks on missed shots, broken plays or after the defence rotates to cover someone else. Give him an inch and he'll go Superman on the rim. So if those two cancel each other out, who's going to make the difference?
Difference makers
Three-point shooting will be huge: Both teams like to bomb from deep, but only one team has consistently done it in this series. (Hint: it's not Toronto).
In the three games, Orlando has shot 12 for 31, 9 for 28 and 8 for 23. Toronto, on the other hand, has shot a combined 8 for 34 in its two losses and 11 for 20 in the win. The numbers are in keeping with the consistency of the Magic and the Box of Chocolates that is the Raptors bench. In Toronto's win Carlos Delfino had 23 points and nailed five three pointers. In their two losses he went 3 for 12 for a total of nine points.
Rebounding, long Toronto's Achilles heel, won't be a factor: Orlando won the battle of the boards in the series, but it wasn't decisive to any victory. In Orlando's wins they outrebounded Toronto by 10 and were outrebounded by six. In Toronto's win they were outboarded by six.
What was decisive was shooting percentages. The team that won tended to shoot the lights out, while the team that lost struggled mightily from the field.
Calderon, Ford have advantage
Point guard play is in Toronto's favour. Sort of. The combination of Calderon and Ford is superior to Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo, but you wouldn't know it because the Raptors duo didn't bring their A games on the same night. Calderon's best game was when Ford was out, and Ford had his best moment during a scoring outburst in the third game of the series, but it was a lost-cause game at that point. For Toronto to get something out of its two-man relay team, they need a smoother pass of the baton.
Watch out for Hedo Turkoglu. Next to Howard, Turkoglu was Orlando's most consistent player in the series, likely because he has the combination of outside shooting and size that can flummox even a long-armed jittery defender like Moon. He's also worth special mention because, among these Magic, he's one of the few players with a history of quality playoff performance and experience.
The result of all this? I say, whoever wins, it'll take seven games. Enough time for fans of both teams to dream of the second round, all the while suspecting their teams don't deserve to be there.
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About the Author
Paul Jay has been writing about basketball for seven years, working as a basketball columnist for Rogers Sportsnet and writing for CBC Sports, Raptors Insider, Dose and appearing on air with Sportsnet and Raptors TV. In his 12 years in journalism, Paul has written features for some of the best publications in the country, including the Globe and Mail, the Ottawa Citizen, Saturday Night, Canadian Lawyer and This magazine. He first joined CBC.ca during the 2004 Athens Olympics and currently writes online for CBCNews.ca as a technology and science writer.
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Comments
Chris
Edmonton
After watching Game 3 for the Raps, I saw the solution that ended all the team's troubles from starting line ups to Jose vs Ford debates. The answer? The Fans. Instead of the critics asking what's going on with the former Atlantic champs? How about we ask where were the fans all year? I couldn't believe the energy I saw and felt in that building that it really helped the team elevate their game. Suddenly the raps were playing defense and rebounding. If the fans duplicate the same energy for game 4, it will be very hard for the magic to win. Which also brings the question if they were like this for the whole season, how many more wins would the Raptors have?
Posted April 25, 2008 03:24 PM
Oscar
Please let Jose Calderon play from the begginning and choose the "team" option that Jose represents against the"me and always me" option that Ford roles.
Ánimo Jose!!!!!!!!!
Posted April 23, 2008 04:56 PM