Tim Thomas was the best goalie in the NHL last season, but could he be headed for a decrease in playing time? Elsa/Getty ImagesFantasy Hockey Faceoff's 2011-12 draft preview continues this week with tips on how to outwit your competition, including when to pick your goalies, when to grab defencemen, and how to best deploy your bench spots.
If you missed last week's column, the guys tackled hot draft topics like where Sidney Crosby ought to be selected, and which players are poised to rebound or drop off this season.
Looking for a league to join? CBC's Hockey Night in Canada Fantasy Pool is back, and the top prize is a brand-new Kia Optima Hybrid.
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On to this week's topics:
1. Where's the best spot to draft a goalie?
Jesse: I always say no earlier than the third round, but you've got to be mindful of your draft position, especially if you draw the No. 1 overall pick. In that spot, you'll have consecutive picks to finish the second round and start the third round. You need to draft a goalie here because you know what happens at every draft: one guy "breaks the seal" on goalies and it starts a run. Like the great fantasy player Bruce Springsteen once advised, don't get caught on the wrong side of that run (or something). But that can happen if you, as the guy in the No. 1 overall slot, let your back-to-back second and third picks pass without snagging a goalie. By the time the draft snakes back to you 23 picks later, you could be left to pick at the bones when you could've grabbed a slam-dunk starter like Henrik Lundvist or Roberto Luongo.
Jordan: It sounds like you’re finally learning, Jesse. Taking a goalie early is absolutely key to any pool, unless the only categories that count are the basic wins, shutouts and goals-against average. Now I’m not saying that you need to jump at one in the first round, but there’s nothing better than having one or two superstar netminders that will anchor your team all year (barring injury). But be careful. Last year I warned poolies not to take Tuukka Rask too high because Tim Thomas was sure to get in his playing time and play well. So this year I’ll say the reverse: don’t take the reigning Conn Smythe winner too high. Though Thomas will surely get more rope thn he previously did after his performance in last spring's playoffs, Rask will get his time too.
2. Where should you pick defencemen?
Jordan: Like goalies, there are a small handful of premier defenders available, but after that top tier the bottom falls out. My advice is that, if you can pull it off, make sure you get a solid No. 1 guy. Only 10 defencemen finished the 2010-11 season with more than five goals, 40 or more points and a positive plus-minus. Of that group, only six also tallied more than 20 power-play points. All that equals slim pickings. Spend a draft choice solidifying your defensive core with a stable, multi-talented player, rather than two, three or four mediocre D-men that may help you in two stat categories at best.
Jesse: Take 'em late, because in my eyes there are no true premier scoring defencemen. One fantasy magazine I saw rated Kris Letang as the top guy. Letang was a nice value play last year when he notched 50 points, but there's a lot of uncertainty around the Penguins this year. Mike Green was last year's draft darling, but he's coming off a 24-point season marred by concussion problems (though I think he's poised for a bounce-back year). The point is, defencemen are hard as hell to handicap. Don't be afraid to fill out your forwards, and even start stocking your bench with an extra goalie or forward, before you complete your defence. In fact, I like to save my last two or three picks for defencemen. And when it's time to choose one, instead of reaching for last year's star, do your research, be patient and find this year's Letang (I like Detroit's Niklas Kronwall).
3. What's the best way to fill out your bench?
Jesse: Depends on the size of the bench, but one thing's for sure: you need at least one backup goalie, and two is even better. Why? Each slot on your roster carries a maximum of 82 games played. Some forwards and defencemen will play all 82 games, but the most active goalie last season was Cam Ward with 74 appearances (one of the reasons he's always a good, yet still underrated, pick) and the average of the top 10 was 68. You don't want to leave those missed games on the table at the end of the season, so grab a goalie later in your draft that you can plug in when one of your starters has the night off. A guy I've seen go pretty late in my drafts in Rask, who played a respectable 29 games last season as the backup in Boston. That total could rise this year because of Thomas's age (37) coming off a long playoff run. And don't forget that Thomas lost the starting gig to Rask two seasons ago. Rask should see consistent action as a backup, and there's even a chance he takes over the starting job at some point.
Jordan: It seems like you went back to some of my previous years’ posts about stocking up on goalies. I agree that having at least two back-ups is critical, especially when bona fide No. 1 guys seem to be increasingly a thing of the past. One goalie worth a look is Evgeni Nabokov. The former Sharks star has been selected 163rd overall on average in Yahoo! drafts. That’s lower than Ty Conklin, Jonas Gustavssson, J.S. Giguere and the injured Antero Niittymaki. Despite the fact that he’s on the Islanders, let’s not forget that Nabokov is the same guy that totaled an average of 44 wins over his final three seasons in the NHL. For forward depth, I'd take a chance on Vinny Prospal and Peter Mueller. Mueller missed all of last season with an injury, while Prospal tallied 23 points in just 29 games. Both players skated on their teams' top lines in the pre-season — Mueller with Matt Duchene with Paul Stastny in Colorado, and Prospal with Rick Nash with Jeff Carter in Columbus.
