It's down to the final four
Tuesday, May 6, 2008 | 05:37 PM ET
After going 6-2 in my Round 1 prognostication, my attempt at looking for a few upsets backfired as I limped home with a measly 1-3 record in Round 2.
With a record of 7-5 so far, I’m not exactly on fire, but if there is one thing that the record shows it’s that in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs the teams are so evenly matched that any team can beat the other on any given night.
The 2007-08 regular season was one of incredible parity in the NHL, and the playoffs have followed suit.
The Dallas Stars pulled off what might look like an upset on paper and in ranking, but given the way the Stars have been playing they deserved to be moving on. Dallas has balanced scoring, solid defence and a goaltender in Marty Turco, who can win his team a game. With four overtime games in Round 2, the Stars are getting used to playing under pressure, and seem to be handling it just fine.
Parity could mean for long series
The Red Wings were the best team in the regular season, and in Round 2, they looked every bit the part. They were dominant, they were relentless and they seemed to be able to score whenever they needed a big goal. With a 4-0 rout of the Avalanche, the Wings look to be on top of their game, and get a much-needed rest for their aging team.
Pittsburgh finally lost a game after roaring out to a 7-0 start and - for a team that came into the playoffs lacking playoff experience - they passed a few tests in the face of adversity against the Rangers. The Penguins are for real, and showed in Round 2 that they can beat you in many different ways.
Maybe the best story of the post-season is the Philadelphia Flyers. From last place to one of the last playoff teams standing in less than a year is a terrific accomplishment for the Flyers organization, and maybe the finest example of how quickly teams can be rebuilt in a salary cap world. They have balance and depth offensively and despite some slower footed defencemen, they have been able to shut down two of the most explosive teams in Round 1 and 2 in Washington and Montreal.
Eastern Conference final
Pittsburgh (2) vs. Philadelphia (6)
This cross-state rivalry has a good history and a lot of hatred. This should be a whale of a series with two teams who hate each other vehemently. The Flyers won the regular season series, but at this point, you can throw that out the window. The biggest challenge for Philly will be defending the Penguins’ offensive firepower.
Of the four teams left in the playoffs, the Flyers are the worst defensively. Martin Biron’s 2.72 goals-against average is almost a full goal a game higher than Fleury’s 1.76, and Biron has yet to face the likes of Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Sykora, Gonchar and company. The Flyers can score as well though, and have had great performances out of their big guns like Briere, Richards, Carter, Prospal, and a surprise-starring roll from R.J. Umberger with nine goals.
This series will be determined by which team can defend. There will be huge challenges on both sides for their defencemen to handle the speed and skill of the other team’s forwards.
The focus of the series will be in goal. In the eight games so far, Marc-Andre Fleury has been exceptional, and answered the critics with his play. Biron had his best series against Montreal, and will have to be even better in this one. In the end, I think the Pens will be too much.
Pittsburgh in 6.
Western Conference final
Detroit (1) vs. Dallas (5)
The Red Wings looked like a well-oiled machine in their disposing of the Colorado Avalanche. They have so much skill and depth in their lineup that trying to shut one guy or one line down isn’t good enough. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom are world class players playing their best hockey, but with the emergence of Johan Franzen with 11 goals in 10 games, the Wings have a lot of different players who can beat you in many different ways.
In net, Chris Osgood took over from Dominik Hasek in Round 1, and clearly, he doesn’t want to give the net back. He has been spectacular and with a 6-0 record, has yet to be beat. Expect the Stars to crash his crease and throw everything to the net. Osgood will have to fight for positioning from the likes of Morrow and Ott on his doorstep.
The Stars just might be the perfect team to pull off an upset. They are the best defensive team in the playoffs. They have great depth offensively up front and solid defence. If Marty Turco continues to play at the level he has been, Dallas feels that they can beat anyone. Turco has been brilliant, and Dallas surrenders just 1.80 goals per game, taking the pressure off their offence to score. If Mike Modano, Mike Ribiero, Brad Richards and Brendan Morrow can find a way to score two goals between them, victory is almost a given.
This is going to be a great series, and I think will be a long one. The one hurdle the Stars must overcome is Turco’s inability to win in Detroit throughout his career. Turco is 2-10-5 against the Wings, and has yet to win in Detroit. This just might be the year.
Dallas in 7.
« Previous Post | Main | Next Post »
This discussion is now Open. Submit your Comment.
« Previous Post | Main | Next Post »
Post a Comment
Simpson on Hockey »
About the Author
Former NHL player, coach and broadcaster Craig Simpson brings over 18 years of expertise to his analyst role on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada. Craig played 10 years in the NHL with Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Edmonton, capturing two Stanley Cups with the Oilers in 1988 and 1990. He continues to hold the distinction of being the last Oiler to score 50 goals in one season (56 goals in 1987-88).
Injuries cut his playing career short in 1995, but the native of London, Ont., didn’t stray far from the game. Simpson worked for eight seasons as a hockey commentator with TSN, FoxSportsNet and Rogers Sportsnet and was an assistant coach with the Oilers organization for the past four years (2003-07) before joining CBC.
Simpson lives in Edmonton with his wife and three children. Viewers can catch Craig on Saturday nights providing analysis and commentary during the second game on HNIC. His blog appears every Tuesday on CBCSports.ca.
Recent Posts
- The NHL’s best two teams face off
- Wednesday, May 21, 2008
- It's down to the final four
- Tuesday, May 6, 2008
- On To Round Two
- Friday, April 25, 2008
- Round One Begins
- Wednesday, April 9, 2008
- Was Playfair really the problem?
- Tuesday, April 1, 2008
- Subscribe to Simpson on Hockey
Archives
- May 2008 (2)
- April 2008 (3)
- March 2008 (4)
- February 2008 (5)
- January 2008 (4)
- December 2007 (4)
Comments
David Muzzatti
Who do I want to see hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup? Anybody BUT the Gary Betteman/Jeff Marek Pittsburgh Penguins. I'm sick & tired of hearing about Crosby, Malkin, Fleury & our course Mario Lemieux. I'm not too concerned. John Stevens will do the deed.
Posted May 9, 2008 03:16 PM
keith
detroit
man i'm lovin that guy's point about who would you choose if you had everything on the line. if you can imagine yourself in that situation and still say dallas....then i salute you. the fact is detroit is far more skilled and just as gritty. as for the goaltending; osgood has won as many stanley cups as turco, plus was the all star starter in goal this year.
Posted May 9, 2008 08:27 AM
Tony
Detroit
It will be a close series. I know Craig's looking for an upset, but let's not forget what right before our eyes: The Wings are every bit as determined as the Stars. The Wings have higher quality offence and defence. The Stars have to win at least one game in Detroit and keep the Wings from winning one in Dallas. And last but not least, physical play has NO affect on the Wings. We saw that proved last year against Calgary, San Jose, and Anaheim (a series that anyone who watched would have to admit came down to bounces of the puck)
Posted May 8, 2008 05:10 AM
Tim
Michigan
Craig,
I think it will be a rematch of the Wings Cup victory in 1998 - Philly vs. Detroit with Detroit prevailing. As for this round, Detroit will have a tough time with Dallas and Turco but will win it in 6 games. Philly will muscle Crosby, Malkin et al and get under their skin. Philly will win in 5 or 6 games, can't decide which.
Posted May 7, 2008 06:13 PM
DetroitRW
Hockeytown
If you had to bet your home, your car, your wife, and your kids on Detroit vs Dallas; are you telling me Mr. Simpson that you would bet on the Stars? Everyone in here would bet on Detroit! Admit it! You picked the Stars because you have NOTHING to lose, and to create some buzz online.
Now if Dallas wins the series, I won't be surprised at all, after watching the Patriots lose the Superbowl to the hungry Giants nothing is a given in sports anymore. Dallas just might be hungry enough to beat the mighty Wings. It's the playoffs, the bigger hearts will win.
Posted May 7, 2008 03:14 AM
jef
Montreal
All well said Craig - forget these other comments
Posted May 7, 2008 02:02 AM
Mike
Windsor
Dallas has looked good knocking off two of the favourites in the West. They will be a tough team and the Detroit/Dallas series can go either way.
Detroit and Dallas are similar in build, Detroit has the advantage with defense and offense, but Dallas has a big edge in goaltending.
It will be interesting to see how Detroit responds in game 1 after sitting for a week.
When praising either Detroit or Dallas it is important to note that they matched up well against their opponents. Now, facing each other, there is no matchup advantage. The winner of this series appears to be the favourite to win the cup.
Posted May 7, 2008 02:01 AM
Brian
Chicago
Washington will beat the Flyers....nope.
Montreal will beat the Flyers....nope.
Just keep picking against them you so called experts.
Go Flyers!!!!!
Posted May 6, 2008 11:33 PM
mike
edmonton
I have to agree with everyone else...Dallas has the best "D" in the playoffs??? Did Craig forget about Lidstrom, Rafalski, & Kronvall?? These guys can dominate a game on any given night. Their best defensemen, Zubov, might be comparable to Rafalski at best.
Posted May 6, 2008 10:50 PM
Brad
Edmonton
"in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs the teams are so evenly matched that any team can beat the other on any given night."
Really? How many game 7s have there been? How many sweeps? This second round was so lop-sided it was a snoozer. While parity has been the case in the regular season, under-acheiving seems to be the case in the playoffs; the Habs, Rangers, Avs, and Sharks are guilty of that. The theme of this year's playoffs is not parity but about teams that try to win on minimal effort and have their butts whipped in less than 5 games.
Posted May 6, 2008 10:04 PM
Keith
Ontario
Dallas has the best defense left in the playoffs? Please explain this comment Craig. They were sixth best in the NHL this season and have allowed 23 goals in 12 games (1.91 GAA) in the playoffs so far. Detroit on the other hand had the number one defense in the NHL this season and has allowed 20 goals in 11 games so far this playoffs (1.81 GAA, 1.43 GAA since Osgood was inserted). If you like Dallas just say that, but the defense statement? Please explain this one? Also I believe Detroit's offensive depth upfront is superior to Dallas. For Dallas to win this series...Turco will have to steal it because offensively and defensively the facts show that Detroit is the superior team.
Posted May 6, 2008 08:47 PM
Tanner
Ottawa
Well Craig, it's time to crown new Conference finalists in each conference. I'll start in the West. Detroit, the #1 ranked team in the league against Dallas. Some say that Dallas is playing well and Turco has found his game this year, but in the end, the horses will prevail. Not only does Detroit have the experience factor, but they have the play of some young players as well. I say Detroit in 5.
As for the East, I think we are seeing the next great dynasty with the Penguins. I have been a big Fleury fan since his days in the "Q". He was rushed to the NHL and played for what amounted to an AHL team for a couple of years (sorry Mario). Now, he's developed into a steady goalie and he got rid of the god awful yellow equipment. Could you play solid hockey with that on? And let's not forget the 1-2 punch of Malkin and Crosby. Penguins in 6.
Posted May 6, 2008 08:23 PM
EA$TVAN!
VANCITY
sorry craig. i agree with the east but in the west i think you are completely wrong. Dallas does not have one of the best defences in the playoffs therefore they will lose in 5. you are going to be 8-6 after this round
Posted May 6, 2008 07:25 PM