Quantity over quality 'pen plan fails

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The fact Blue Jays manager John Farrell served as Jonathan Papelbon's pitching coach in Boston for four seasons should give Toronto an edge when the closer hits the open market this off-season, says CBCSports.ca blogger Kevin Glew. (Elsa/Getty Images)

This year's edition of the Toronto Blue Jays reminds me of 1982.

While loaded with promising, young talent, the 1982 club was saddled with a less-than-reliable bullpen. And for longtime Jays fans, Jon Rauch's late-inning ineptitude evokes memories of Joey McLaughlin, while the current crop of left-handed relievers inspires Jerry Garvin flashbacks.

Fortunately, not a single member of the 2011 relief corps has a guaranteed contract for 2012, and Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos will have an opportunity to reshape the bullpen in the off-season.

Before he starts this overhaul, however, I'd like to offer the following suggestions:

Emphasize quality over quantity

Last off-season, Anthopoulos opted to acquire middling relievers like Rauch, Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco rather than pursue an elite closer. And with 19 games left in the schedule, and still some uncertainty as to who's the team's top ninth-inning option, this quantity over quality strategy appears to have failed.

Rather than pluck relievers off the scrap heap, Anthopoulos needs to sign a bona fide closer this off-season. The good news is Boston's Jonathan Papelbon, San Diego's Heath Bell, and Philadelphia's Ryan Madson will be free agents, along with hard-throwing right-handers Francisco Cordero of the Cincinnati Reds and Jose Valverde of the Detroit Tigers, if their teams decline their respective contract options.

For the past two seasons, the Red Sox have been grooming set-up man Daniel Bard as a closer, so there's a chance Papelbon will not return. The fact Blue Jays manager John Farrell served as Papelbon's pitching coach in Beantown for four seasons should give the Jays an edge when the 30 year old enters the free agent market a couple of weeks after the completion of the World Series.

Papelbon hasn't saved fewer than 35 games in any full season and boasts an impressive 0.93 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched) in 2011. However, the Jays will have to open up their wallets to sign Papelbon (he's due $12 million US this season), but the flame-throwing righty should be at the top of the team's wish list.

Bell represents a solid Plan B. Anthopoulos reportedly inquired about the 33-year-old reliever at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Though three years older than Papelbon, Bell should be a lock for at least 30 saves a season for the foreseeable future.

Say goodbye to Jon Rauch, Shawn Camp and Frank Francisco

With five blown saves in 16 opportunities and a 4.85 earned-run average this season, Rauch isn't likely to have his $3.75-million option for 2012 picked up by the Jays. Camp has also struggled mightily in recent months. His 1.89 WHIP in the second half is amongst the worst in the major leagues.

On the other hand, Francisco, who allowed his first two runs since July 20 on Wednesday, has had a strong second half.

Unfortunately, the injury prone right-hander hasn't thrived in the closer's role and will command a 2012 salary that's similar to the $4 million he's making this season. The Jays would be better to save that money and use it for a more established closer.

Welcome back Casey Janssen, Joel Carreno, Jesse Litsch, Dustin McGowan

Right-hander Janssen is the favourite to be the set-up man in 2012, but Carreno, who struck out 152 batters in 134 2/3 innings at AA New Hampshire, and has limited big-league hitters to just one run in nine innings, is also a candidate.

Litsch has held opposing batters to a .162 average since he was recalled from AAA Las Vegas on July 28 and used exclusively as a relief pitcher. Given his fragility, the burly right-hander seems best suited for the bullpen.

In his first big-league appearance since July 2008, McGowan pitched four innings on Tuesday and showcased a 95-mile-per-hour fastball. With an above average slider and changeup in his repertoire, some believe McGowan would make an excellent closer.

The Jays have added right-handers Chad Beck and Danny Farquhar to the bullpen for the remainder of the season, but neither is likely to factor into the the big-league plans in 2012.

Move Luis Perez and Carlos Villanueva back to bullpen permanently

Finding a reliable left-handed reliever has been one of the Jays' biggest problems this season. While Marc Rzepczynski was superb before he was traded to St. Louis in the Colby Rasmus deal in late July, three southpaws - David Purcey, Trever Miller and Brian Tallet - have been released. Rommie Lewis and Brad Mills haven't shown they can get big-league hitters out with any consistency, and Jesse Carlson, who has missed the entire 2011 season after undergoing shoulder surgery, probably won't be offered a contract for 2012.

Anthopoulos doesn't need to shop for a lefty when he already has Perez. The 26 year old has been hit hard in his last two starts and there's a growing consensus he's a better bullpen option. Villanueva is also more effective in a relief role, having held hitters to a .132 average in 16 appearances out of the bullpen. He should be counted on to get key outs in the late innings in 2012.

Glew's 2012 Blue Jays bullpen:|

(Information in brackets denotes contract status heading into 2012)

Jesse Litsch - RHP (arbitration eligible)
Casey Janssen - RHP (arbitration eligible)
Carlos Villanueva - RHP (arbitration eligible)
Dustin McGowan - RHP (arbitration eligible)
Luis Perez - LHP
Joel Carreno - RHP
Jonathan Papelbon - (free agent)

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